#11 Saint Mary's vs. #11 Middle Tennessee

NCAA Tournament First Four

#11 Saint Mary's Gaels vs. #11 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Tuesday, March 19th, 6:10 PM PDT.

University of Dayton Arena, Dayton, Ohio.

Middle Tennessee hails from the Sun Belt Conference. The Blue Raiders are 28-5 on the season, they went 19-1 in the Sun Belt regular season. They are 13-5 away from home this season.

Saint Mary's is 27-6 on the season and went 14-2 in WCC regular season play. The Gaels are 11-5 away from home this season.

TV: TruTV.

Satellite Radio: Sirius XM 91.

Online: Live video from the NCAA, live audio from WNSR (Nashville, TN).

This is exactly what the first four should be (though not necessarily always between mid-majors). Two at large teams that were on the bubble fighting for the right to enter the field of 64. Saint Mary's played seven games against four teams that made the NCAA Tournament field. Middle Tennessee played six games against five teams that made the NCAA Tournament field. Neither made a great case for their inclusion into the field but both have the look of teams that should be in.

Advanced statistics from KenPom.com and BBstate.com.
Click for full size view.

This is a classic offense versus defense battle. As you see in the image above (I've fallen in love with spreadsheets), Saint Mary's has a great, possibly elite offense (spreadsheets!), and Middle Tennessee has an equally great/possibly elite defense.

The Blue Raiders don't hold teams to so few points by limiting possessions, like say, Wisconsin (310th in tempo, 10th in points allowed). It's not like the Gaels score so many points by cramming as many possessions as possible into the 40 minutes like say, Northwestern State (1st in tempo, 1st in points scored).

These two squads have managed to play their vastly different styles at similar speeds. Saint Mary's actually plays the game slower, averaging just over one fewer possession per 40 minutes than Middle Tennessee.

What we've seen when Saint Mary's goes up against great defenses isn't pretty. Last time the Gaels played was against a good defense in Gonzaga. Mike Hart, WCC Defensive POY, frustrated Matthew Dellavedova all game and the Gaels struggled. However, when Middle Tennessee goes up against great offenses the results aren't pretty either. Belmont blew out the Blue Raiders by 18 points early in the season. Florida, which also has a good defense, routed them by 21. Akron put up 82 points (70 in regulation) on the team that holds opponents below 60.

So, what's the difference going to be if both teams appear to be deadlocked?

Saint Mary's is taller, tougher and more tested.

Compare the teams' top five players by minutes played in terms of height.
Saint Mary's:6'4'', 6'4'', 6'6'', 6'9'' 6'9''.
Mid. Tenn.: 6'0'', 6'2'', 6'3'', 6'5'', 6'8''.

Saint Mary's Brad Waldow (6'9'') averages 10.2ppg and Mitchell Young (6'9'') gets 7.6ppg. The biggest contributors in the Blue Raiders' front line, 6'8'' Shawn Jones and 6'7'' Neiko Hunter put up just 8.6ppg and 7.6ppg respectively. Also, Brad Waldow lost a tooth in the WCC Semifinals but only missed 94 seconds of game time (he tried to miss zero seconds but the rules say you can't play if you're bleeding, dude's got some serious coagulation ability) before coming back in. First thing he did upon returning? Battle down low for an offensive rebound and get fouled. That's tough.

More tested? The soft scheduling Gaels are more battle tested than their opponent in the NCAA Tournament?! Somehow yes, they are. Not only do the Gaels have the better strength of schedule, 112th to 133rd, but they've played more tough teams more recently.

The Sun Belt is really weak. It almost, and most years would have, kept the Blue Raiders out of the Big Dance since they didn't win the auto-bid. Down the stretch of the season Middle Tennessee feasted on weak teams. No team in the Sun Belt (so no team they've played since Christmas) is ranked higher than 132nd in KenPom's rankings. In that same time frame the Gaels have played nine games against teams ranked higher than 132nd. Three of those games were against the #1 team in the polls, one seed in the West region and #4 team in KenPom, Gonzaga (including the last game they played).

The Gaels have all that going for them, but the Blue Raiders have proximity on their side. Murfreesboro, Tennessee is 296 miles from Dayton, Ohio. Moraga is 2,032 miles from Dayton. Time change, fatigue from travel and lack of fan support will hurt the Gaels. The Gaels haven't played a game this far from Moraga since 2010-11 when they played in Alaska. They haven't been to the Eastern Time Zone all season.

So, there you go, the Gaels have the slightest possible edge. This is going to be one heck of an entertaining game.