Saint Mary's Point Guard Problem

Craig Neal was hired as the head coach at New Mexico on April 3rd, shortly after former head coach Steve Alford took the top job at UCLA. Since April 3rd there has been speculation surrounding his son, Cullen Neal. The 6'4'' point guard was ranked 150th in the class of 2013 and had committed to Saint Mary's. Today came the, somewhat expected, news that Cullen would play for Craig; Saint Mary's is allowing the prized recruit to decommit and go to New Mexico.

Neal is coming off a stellar, 26.5 points per game, senior season at Eldorado High School in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He was in the mix to replace the outgoing, 15.8ppg, Matthew Dellavedova  in Moraga. So, not only are the Gaels losing a top recruit but they've further opened a gaping hole in their 2013-14 roster.

Saint Mary's was already in a bit of a bind losing Dellavedova. The four year starter was one of the best point guards in the nation for the past two years. It's hard to replace any guy, let alone one who was a starter in the Olympics. That's where Neal came in. Now, they'll have to make do with who they've got coming back, or scramble to find someone new.

So, who's left? Jordan Giusti and Jorden Page. Here's how those two compare based on their performances this past season.

Click chart for full size view.

Click chart for full size view.

Click chart for full size view.

Page, an Australian, played in all 32 of the Gaels' games and started once as a freshman. Due to an early season knee injury he redshirted his second year in Moraga. In 2011-12, as a redshirt sophomore, he played in all 33 games and started the final 20. This past season Page started 27 games, from Cal Poly through the WCC Championship Game. He injured his knee in the early going against Gonzaga (he played just five minutes, per the chart above) and missed the Gaels subsequent NCAA Tournament games (the only two games he missed all season).

While the injury certainly helped boost Giusti's playing time and numbers, it's obvious from the charts above that the redshirt walk-on freshman had been picking up minutes on his own merit even before the injury. Giusti's playing time increased as the Gaels moved along the home stretch of the season. Remember, the Gaels were on the bubble and needed to win every game if they wanted to make the tournament as an at large. That increase in time during a critical stretch speaks to Randy Bennett's faith in Giusti.

Both have made a case for the job. Page has the experience and the scoring ability while Giusti has the faith of the coach and momentum. With Neal now out of the picture, barring some unforeseen transfer or recruit, it's either Page or Giusti.

Neal committed back in early 2012, while still a junior in high school. He would have had over a year to figure out the Gaels' style before his first workout in Moraga. If the Gaels can find pick up some recruit who is talented enough to fill the void left by Neal (and, of course, by Dellavedova before him), that recruit will have far less than a year to figure out the system. What's more, Saint Mary's has been prohibited, due to NCAA sanctions, from engaging in skill instruction during the offseason. 

That means that whoever gets the starting job, be it Page, Giusti or someone else, will be unable to work out with coaches during the offseason. What was already a daunting task in replacing the irreplaceable Matthew Dellavedova has now just become, amazingly, even more difficult.