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The Waves' non-conference doesn't provide many chances to pick up a quality win. San Jose State provides a chance for a WCC team to beat a Mountain West team, but San Jose State isn't up to MWC standards yet. Utah Valley can challenge in the depleted WAC but likely won't win due to New Mexico State's dominance. The Waves' second game in the Great Alaska Shootout will likely be their best shot a quality win, especially if they can win their first game. Both Harvard and Denver will contend for NCAA Tournament berths this season. UC Irvine could make the big dance as well, though Pacific's exit from the Big West certainly helps the Anteaters in that regard. Finally, Washington State is the Waves' only game against a BCS team that is sure to happen (they could face TCU in Alaska depending on how the bracket shakes out). Unfortunately, Washington State is about as bad as a BCS team can get (TCU too, for that matter).
While there aren't many, if any, strong teams on the schedule, there are ample opportunities for confidence boosting wins. This Waves program has been improving steadily under Marty Wilson. Making it through this slate without a bad loss could be just what they need to make the jump from young and inexperienced to upwardly mobile in the West Coast Conference.
San Diego Christian Hawks, Golden State Athletic Conference (NAIA)
Last Season: 7-17 (0-9 vs. D-I, not included in official 7-17 record)
The Waves' first game of the regular season is simply a tune-up game that will almost assuredly result in a win. Last time these two teams met was back on November 11th of 2008 when the visiting Hawks lost 63-88. Unlike that game, which was a preseason exhibition, the outcome of this game will stay on the Waves' record for eternity. San Diego Christian as one may expect more frequently faces crosstown rival San Diego. The Toreros have blown out the Hawks in each of the past two seasons, 91-58 last season and 89-63 the year prior. Andy Saharan is the guy to keep an eye on. Saharan logged 100 minutes for D-I UC Riverside during the 2010-11 season. He is the only player on the Hawks' roster with D-I experience.
2. November 13th at 7:00 PM in Riverside, CA
UC Riverside Highlanders, Big West Conference
Last Season: 6-25 (3-15), 10th place Big West
Last Season vs. WCC: Loss at Pepperdine, 0-2 vs. Pacific
For the fourth straight season the lowly Highlanders finished with a sub-.500 record. Their three conference wins gave them sole possession of dead last in the Big West. Jim Wooldridge is no longer the head coach in Riverside, but the history of poor performance has nothing to do with it. Wooldridge was promoted, he's now the interim athletic director, and assistant Dennis Cutts was given the interim head coaching job. The staff shakeup is more pronounced than the roster shakeup, as only three players are leaving. The only significant loss is that of Robert Smith, the team's leading assist and minutes man, as well as a 6.4 ppg scorer.
The Highlanders were an awful offensive team last season and without Smith dishing out 3.4 assists per game, they look to be equally anemic this year. Like the Waves so far under Marty Wilson, the Highlanders play at a slow pace (hovering around 65 possessions per game the past five seasons). However, they're significantly worse at turning those possessions into points. The Waves averaged 0.954 points per possession last year, compared to the Highlanders 0.862. The two players to watch will be the two seniors named Chris, Patton and Harriel. The 6' 10", 246 lbs Patton was the focal point of last year's offense and figures to be once again.
3. November 16th at 3:30 PM in Mount Pleasant, MI
Central Michigan Chippewas, Mid-American Conference
Last Season: 11-20 (4-12), 10th place MAC
Last Season vs. WCC: Win at Pepperdine
The Chippewas are a young team. Last year's top five in terms of minutes played included four freshmen, the other was a senior. By the end of the season, all five of those players were regular starters. So, this year the starting line up figures to look the same at four of the five spots. The only problem is the lone departing starter, Kyle Randall, lead the MAC in scoring with 18.7 ppg. Replacing the leading scorer not just on your team, but in all of your league, is not usually an easy task. However, the Chippewas should be fine considering they return a highly effective distributor in sophomore Chris Rowley. Calling Rowley a "highly effective distributor" is actually a bit of an understatement, considering he led the nation in assist rate as a freshman. Too bad one-and-done players have stolen the spotlight from regular freshmen like Rowley.
The problem last season was on the defensive end where the Chippewas gave up 1.08 points per possession. Per KenPom, only 18 teams ranked worse than Central Michigan in defensive efficiency last season. A year of experience on the court and in the weight room should help shore up the defense. Considering the Waves' struggles were on offense last season, let's hope the defensive improvement is gradual rather than immediate.
4. November 20th at 7:00 PM in Malibu
San Jose State Spartans, Mountain West Conference
Last Season: 9-20 (3-14), T-8th Western Athletic Conference
Last Season vs. WCC: Loss at home to Santa Clara
Remember when San Francisco lost nine players, six to transfer, in the offseason after their 20 win 2011-12 campaign? That transfer bug moved south this offseason and ravaged the Spartans. The Dons bounced back rather easily despite the losses, but don't expect the same in San Jose. The Spartans, who weren't a good team to begin with (perennially sub-.500), also have to deal with a new head coach and a much tougher conference.
The only good news for the Spartans is they return their two best players from last year, junior guard D.J. Brown and senior forward Chris Cunningham. The 6' 9", 240 lbs Cunningham was a legit double-double threat averaging 10.7 points and 9 rebounds per game. While Cunningham will do his thing down low, Brown should have no problem dealing with the Pepperdine backcourt that now lacks Lorne Jackson and Jordan Baker. However, aside from those two (who, once again, were the best players on an awful team and will, once again, be the best players on an awful team) the Spartans are seriously lacking in skill and experience. The only player with skill and experience on the team is the aforementioned Jordan Baker, who transferred to SJSU this summer and is ineligible to play this season.
5. November 23rd at 5:00 PM in Malibu
Utah Valley Wolverines, Western Athletic Conference
Last Season: 14-18 (3-5), T-3rd Great West Conference
Last Season vs. WCC: Loss at Santa Clara, Win (OT) at home vs. Pepperdine
The Wolverines managed through last season with just ten players on their roster. They'll go about things the same way this year. Fortunately for head coach Dick Hunsaker, the ten guys on his squad are all pretty good. Seniors Ben Aird and Holton Hunsaker, both of whom were named to last year's all-Great West team, will lead the Wolverines once again. Redshirt freshman Eli Robison should contribute immediately because he has been out of high school for three years. The redshirt season plus his LDS mission to Ukraine have kept the 2010 Deseret News 4A MVP off the court.
The Wolverines are an old team this year; six of their ten players are upperclassmen, four of which are seniors and many have served LDS missions. That experience is bolstered by schedules over the past two seasons that have included strong teams like Washington State, Santa Clara, Weber State, Utah State, Arkansas, Wyoming and Montana. While both their old conference, the now defunct Great West, and their new conference, the unidentifiable WAC, are somewhat laughable, Utah Valley looks to be the first serious hurdle the Waves will have to jump.
6. November 28th at 6:30 PM in Anchorage, AK
Green Bay Phoenix, Horizon League
Last Season: 18-16 (10-6), T-3rd place Horizon League, Lost CIT 1st Round.
Since his arrival in Green Bay three seasons ago, head coach Brian Wardle's Phoenix have focused on becoming a defensive-minded team. Couple that focus on defense with a tall frontcourt, fifth nationally last season in effective height (per KenPom) and you've got a team with a knack for blocks. 13.8% of two point field goals attempted against the Phoenix were blocked last season. They should stay around that percentage, which was the 15th nationally, once again this season because 7' 1" senior Alec Brown and 6' 7" sophomore Jordan Fouse accounted for nearly two thirds of those blocks.
While Green Bay prides itself on defense and Pepperdine has yet to develop much of an offensive identity, the Waves have a shot in this one. First of all, the Phoenix don't have much of an offense to begin with. On top of that they've lost their first and third ranked players in offensive rating. More importantly is the Waves' ability to avoid shot blockers. Only 7.8% of their two point attempts were blocked last season, 50th best in the nation.
7. November 29th in Anchorage, AK
Harvard Crimson, Ivy League
Last Season: 20-10 (11-3), 1st place Ivy. 14 seed NCAA Tournament, Lost in Round of 32 to 6 seed Arizona.
Last Season vs. WCC: Lost at Saint Mary's.
OR
Denver Pioneers, Summit League
Last Season: 22-10 (16-2) 2nd place Western Athletic Conference. Lost in NIT Second Round
8. November 30th in Anchorage, AK
Tulsa Golden Hurricane, Conference USA
Last Season: 17-16 (8-8), 6th place C-USA. Lost in CBI First Round.
Last Season vs. WCC: Won at San Diego
OR
Indiana State Sycamores, Missouri Valley Conference
Last Season: 18-15 (9-9), 5th place Missouri Valley. Lost in NIT First Round.
OR
TCU Horned Frogs, Big 12 Conference
Last Season: 11-21 (2-16), 10th place Big 12
OR
Alaska Anchorage Seawolves, Great Northwest Athletic Conference (Division II)
Last Season: 18-9 (11-7)
Last Season vs. WCC: Won at home vs. LMU in Great Alaska Shootout.
9. December 4th at 7:00 PM in Malibu
Cal State Fullerton Titans, Big West Conference
Last Season: 14-18 (6-12), 8th place Big West
Last Season vs. WCC: 0-2 vs. Pacific
Former Arizona State assistant Dedrique Taylor took over the head coaching position back in April and has some serious rebuilding to do. Last year's Titans were one of the nation's best offensive units. They outpace the national average by nearly ten points per game and averaged 1.06 points per possession. However, they finished below .500 in the far from strong Big West because they had one of the nation's worst defenses. Opponents scored at least one point on nearly 70% of their offensive possessions. The two sides of the ball should move closer together this season but that is not a positive.
The Titans lose the three players responsible for over 60% of their total points. Other than junior guard Alex Harris and his 10.5 ppg, no returning Titan player is much of a scorer or playmaker. Michael Williams, a former Don who took part in the 2012 mass exodus, will play his senior season for the Titans after redshirting last season. Over six career games against the Waves, Williams is averaging 10.6 points.
10. December 7th at 6:30 PM in Irvine
UC Irvine Anteaters, Big West Conference
Last Season: 21-16 (11-7), 4rd place Big West. Lost CIT Second Round.
Last Season vs. WCC: Lost at Pepperdine, 1-2 vs. Pacific
Looking at last season's Anteaters it was hard to find something notable, they were just incredibly well balanced. They scored nearly 70 points per game yet only one player averaged only ten per game (12.9). Five players averaged between 8.5 and 9.8 points per game. Of those six top scorers three are returning, though not the highest scorer of the group. This balanced will not be as pronounced this season as players like Will Davis, Chris McNealy and Alex Young, all of whom averaged in the nine points per game range, will need to step up.
Unlike last year, it won't be hard to find something notable about this year's team. Last year, per KenPom, the Anteaters were in the bottom-100 nationally in effective height. Things have changed significantly. Freshmen Ioannis Dimakopoulos of Greece and Mamadou Ndiaye of Senegal stand 7' 2" and 7' 6" respectively. They join 7' sophomore Connor Clifford and two 6' 10" guys to form one of the nation's tallest frontcourts
11. December 15th at 5:00 PM in Pullman, WA
Washington State Cougars, Pacific 12 Conference
Last Season: 13-19 (4-14), T-11th place Pac-12
Last Season vs. WCC: Lost at Pepperdine, lost at home to Gonzaga and won at home vs. Portland.
Ken Bone's Cougars have been kept afloat by the strong and steady play of Brock Motum down low, but now he's gone. D.J. Shelton and his 6.2 points per game will look to replace Motum's 18.7 ppg but I don't see that happening. Shelton doesn't have much upside when you look at the tempo-free stats. He averaged just 9.7 points per forty minutes and his offensive rating of 94.4 was a solid 10 points lower than Motum's. The other frontcourt piece is Iowa State transfer Jordan Railey who averaged just 1.3 points in over six minutes per game during his two years as a Cyclone.
So the focus shifts to the guards. Royce Woolridge came on hot down the stretch. He scored over 15 points on five different occasions after Valentine's Day, including 36 against Oregon and 25 against USC. He's the team's best ball handler but his game is more suited to the shooting guard spot. Joining him in the backcourt is the injury prone DaVonte Lacy who dropped 22 points on Gonzaga.
12. December 21st at 1:00 PM in Malibu
Houston Baptist Huskies, Southland Conference
Last Season: 14-17 (3-5), T-3rd place Great West
Last Season vs. WCC: Lost at home vs. Pepperdine
You could count on your fingers the number offenses worse than Houston Baptist's last season. The Huskies couldn't shoot or hold on to the ball and as a result they averaged just 0.85 points per possession (the national average was 0.98). They played at a significantly faster pace than the Waves, having nearly five more possessions per game than Pepperdine, but like I said they were very bad at scoring. So, if the Waves can dictate the tempo they should have no problem outscoring the Huskies.
The Huskies keep the bulk of their roster, with the notable exception of leading scorer Art Bernardi and his 14.1 points per game. Not only was Bernardi productive, at 6' 9"he was the Huskies only interior presence. The Waves frontcourt should be able to dominate the Huskies, especially considering they were worse at defending two pointers than three pointers last season, and last season they had Bernardi.
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