Friday, July 20, 2012

Early Analysis: BYU's Non-Conference Opponents

Brigham Young University released the out of conference schedule for the Cougars (about a week ago, I got lost in the depths of kenpom.com and similar stat websites so it took a while to get this article finished) and it's a pretty solid one for a mid-major. From extremely elite teams like Baylor and Notre Dame, thru the strong mid-majors of Saint Joe's and Montana and the mid-majors on the rise like Tennessee State to just awful teams like Northern Arizona. Five of the 15 teams are coming off NCAA tournament berths, 10 earned a postseason berth in either the NCAA, NIT, or CIT, and only four finished the season below .500. This schedule looks to provide plenty of exposure for the Cougars, opportunity to knock off top 25 teams, and chances for blowout wins at home. I'm pretty darn excited for it.



I've analyzed every D-1 team on the schedule and now present you with a summary of each team's 2011-12 season, the players they aren't returning, and their key player for next season. This is just a brief overview, I'll revisit each team in the days before the match up for more in depth analysis.


1. November 9th in Provo.
Tennessee State Tigers, Ohio Valley Conference.
2011-12 Record: 20-13 (11-5) 2nd OVC.
Postseason: CIT 1st round, loss 68-60 at Mercer.

Key Losses: Wil Peters. The guard led the team in minutes per game, was 5th in points with 7.6 per game and 2nd in assists with 3.5 per game.
Forward Kenny Moore: 7.5 PPG.

The Tigers finished the season with the second best record both overall and in conference play in the Ohio Valley Conference. On February 9th the Tigers handed then undefeated #7 Murray State their first loss of the year (one of only two the Racers would suffer all season), 72-68 in Murray, KY. The Tigers have been sub-.500 seven of the past eight seasons, with last year being their only winning season of the bunch. While the Tigers do lose two experienced seniors, particularly in Wil Peters, they return most of their offensive attack. Peters is the only starter not returning next season. Of the remaining four starters, three will be seniors and one will be a junior. The Tigers don't look to drop off next season, thanks mostly to Robert Covington who will return as a senior.

Key Player: Robert Covington. The 6'9'', 215lbs forward was named to the to the first team all OVC and the OVC all-tournament team as well as being, along with Murray State's Isaiah Canaan, named co-MVP of the conference by CollegeInsider.com. Covington racked up nine double-doubles, scored in double figures in every game from November 14th on, and led the team with 17.8 PPG. He will provide the most trouble for BYU, though the match-up of Brandon Davies on Covington should be entertaining.



2. November 13th in Provo.
Georgia State Panthers, Colonial Athletic Association.
2011-12 record: 22-12 (11-7) 6th CAA.
Postseason: CIT 2nd round, loss 59-64 at Mercer.

Key Losses: Eric Buckner: Led team in offensive rating (per kenpom), RPG with 7.1, FG% at 62%, and BPG with 3.5 which was good enough for a tie for fourth in the nation, also the teams third leading scorer with 10.8 PPG. Guard Jihad Ali: Led team in 3pt%, second in PPG at 12.5 and MPG with 33.

Georgia State finished 6th in the Colonial Athletic Association last season, but the conference was strong enough for that finish to earn the Panthers a berth in the CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament (CIT). The Panthers put together a solid 22 win season thanks mostly to their defense and deliberate use of possessions (which they didn't have many, only 67 per 40 minutes, compare that to BYU's 74.7). Their ability to win games thanks to deliberate play came thanks to being a veteran team. Being a veteran team is great for one year, but this off season the Panthers will lose six seniors, four of which were starters. Their one returning starter was their leading scorer (12.9ppg), to be junior guard Devonta White. While the return their leading scorer they lose their second, third, fourth, fifth, and seventh leading scorers. Next season does not look promising for the Panthers. On top of that bad news, they are banned from the CAA postseason tournament for choosing to move to the Sun Belt in 2013.

Key Player: Devonta White. White is only 5' 10'', 158lbs but as a sophomore he was the Panthers' leading scorer. With the hits their offense has taken this offseason expect to see White's role increase next season. White is quick, as you may expect an undersized point guard to be, and similar to Loyola Marymount's Anthony Ireland though not as skilled.


3. and 4. November 16th and 17th in Brooklyn, New York, NY.
Coaches Vs. Cancer Classic, BYU will play two of the following three teams.

Florida State Seminoles, Atlantic Coast Conference.
2011-12 record: 25-10 (12-4) 3rd ACC.
Postseason: 3 seed NCAA Tournament, lost 56-62 to 6 seed Cincinnati in round of 32.

The Seminoles lose 6 seniors including second leading scorer and leading rebounder Bernard James as well as guard Deividas Dulkys. They return leading scorer and top player, to be senior guard Michael Snaer, as well as 3 other to be seniors and a pair of to be juniors coming off solid sophomore campaigns.


Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Big East Conference.
2011-12 record: 22-12 (13-5) 3rd Big East.
Postseason: 7 seed NCAA Tournament, lost 63-67 to 10 seed Xavier in round of 64.

The Irish lose their preseason all-Big East forward Tim Abromaitis, who the NCAA did not grant a sixth year of eligibility. Abromaitis suffered a torn ACL on November 25th. He played only two games last season. The remainder of their roster returns, including Scott Martin, who unlike Abromaitis, was granted a sixth year of eligibility. Despite playing without Abromaitis, the Irish managed a solid season and an at large berth to the NCAA tournament. On January 21st the Irish handed then #1 Syracuse their first loss of the season, it would be the only loss the Orange would suffer before the post-season. Notre Dame will be a force next season.

Saint Joseph's Hawks, Atlantic-10 Conference.
2011-12 record: 20-14 (9-7) T-5th A-10.
Postseason: 2 seed NIT, lost 65-67 to 7 seed Northern Iowa in first round.

The Hawks were a young team last year, and will be again this season. There were no seniors on last year's squad. Of the three juniors only one was a contributor of note, guard Carl Jones. Jones led the team in minutes and points per game with 36.5 and 17 respectively. That said, the Hawks return not just the core of their roster but the whole of it. Even with Butler and VCU in the mix of A-10 play starting this season, Saint Joe's looks to duke it out with Saint Louis for tops in the league. A win for BYU here will look great come March... actually that could be said for the other two teams as well. This is a scary good field, especially considering the Cougars may be the worst of the four teams. I'll do more in depth analysis once the pairings are released/the event gets closer.




5. November 21st in Provo.
University of Texas San Antonio Roadrunners, Southland Conference.
2011-12 record: 17-14 (10-6) T-4th Southland.

Key Losses: Michael Hale III: the senior point guard led the team in assists with 3.2 per game and was fourth in scoring with 10 points per game.

The Roadrunners lose four seniors to graduation, but return their top three scorers. For the past four seasons the Roadrunners have stagnated, winning between 17 and 20 games. Last season they managed to rack up 17, but they did so by playing the 288th hardest schedule in the nation, giving them only the 208th highest RPI. Since they return the majority of their offense they may improve upon their win total, but much of that will be because they play in one of the worst conferences in Division 1, the Southland. The Southland was consistently ranked 28th out of the 31 automatic bid conferences (there are 32 D-1 conferences, the Great West does not receive an auto-bid), and the Southland teams managed to win only 33% of their non-conference games. One of those non-conference losses was to Pepperdine, which managed only 4 WCC wins. The team that couldn't beat the lowly Waves? UT San Antonio, in San Antonio. My point, the Roadrunners ran up a decent win total, but they did so against garbage opponents.


Key Player: Jeromie Hill. The 6'8'', 230lbs, forward from Cairns, Australia was third on the team in points at 12.3 a game in his sophomore season. He led the Roadrunners in rebounds and minutes per game with 6.5 and 31.4 respectively. 




6. November 24th in Provo.
Cal. State Northridge Matadors, Big West Conference.
2011-12 record: 7-21 (3-13) 8th Big West.

Key Losses: Vinnie McGhee. The senior guard was third in scoring with 8.2 points per game, and led the team, by a slight margin, in assists per game with 3.4.

The Matador's roster last season contained only four upperclassmen, all seniors, and none of them averaged over 9 points or 5 rebounds. The Matadors have been rebuilding since their 2009 NCAA Tournament appearance. With six juniors and seven sophomores on the 2012-13 roster the rebuilding is approaching it's end. Their top three scorers and top two rebounders return next season. With their youth turning into veterans the Matadors should easily improve upon their 2011-12 record.


Key Player: Stephen Hicks. The 6'5'', 190lbs guard led the team in both points per game and rebounds per game last season and he was just a freshman. Hicks is by far the team's most important player as he was used on nearly 50% of their offensive possessions. With the development of the players around him, and his already established scoring ability, the Matadors are moving in the right direction.


7. November 28th in Salt Lake City (EnergySolutions Arena).
University of Montana Grizzlies, Big Sky Conference.
2011-12 record: 25-7 (14-1) 1st Big Sky.
Postseason: 13 seed NCAA, lost in the round of 64, 49-73, to 4 seed Wisconsin.

Key Losses: Derek Selvig. The seven foot Selveg led the team in rebounds and blocks per game with 6 and 1.2 respectively. Selveg was fifth on the team in scoring with 9.1 points per game and third with three assists per game. Also, he is seven feet tall, that is hard to replace. Art Steward: the forward was fourth in scoring with 9.5 points per game. The loss of Selveg and and Steward damages the Grizzlies frontcourt depth.



The Griz lose three seniors to graduation but the two to-be-seniors led the team in almost every statistical category. Those two seniors, guard Will Cherry and forward Mathias Ward, are both skilled and experienced, which makes it probable that Montana will improve upon their 25 win season. Both Cherry and Ward now have three years of experience, two of those years included NCAA tournament berths and the other saw the Griz head to the CBI. Joining Cherry and Ward atop the box score is to-be-junior point guard Kareem Jamar. Jamar led the team in assists and minutes per game with 3.7 and 34.9 respectively, he was also second in scoring with 13.6 points per game. Thanks to that core of players the Grizzlies lost only one game between December 10th and their NCAA tournament loss to Wisconsin. That loss was to fellow 25-7 team Weber State with the sixth pick in the 2012 NBA Draft and second leading scorer in the nation, Damian Lillard. In fact, the Grizzlies didn't really suffer a bad loss last season. Their worst loss was at North Dakota back in November, and the Fighting Sioux finished with 17 wins and a berth in the CIT postseason tournament. Things are looking up in Missoula.



Key Player: Will Cherry. Montana is the favorite in the Big Sky and Cherry is the favorite for player of the year honors. Cherry recently took part in the Deron Williams Skills Academy along with nine other elite college point guards. After seeing fellow Big Sky guard and Oakland product Damian Lillard go from unknown to lottery pick this past season, Will Cherry is looking to follow in his friend and sometimes foe's footsteps. 


8. December 1st in Ames, Iowa.
Iowa State Cyclones, Big 12 Conference.
2011-12 record: 23-11 (12-6) T-3rd Big 12.
Postseason: 8 seed NCAA Tournament, lost in the round of 32, 71-87, to 1 seed and eventual champion Kentucky.


Key Losses: Royce White. The sophomore forward led the team in points, assists, rebounds, rebound rate, steals, and blocks. White's success led him to the Houston Rockets as the 16th pick of the NBA Draft. Scott Christopherson: The Senior guard led the team in free throw and three point percentage at 90.3 and 45.6 percent respectively. Christopherson was also the Cyclones second leading scorer, with 12.6 points per game, and assists man, with 2.3 per game.


The Cyclones were a surprise success story in the Big 12 last season, improving upon nearly a decade of sub-20 win seasons with a 23 win campaign capped off with a win in the NCAA tournament. Unfortunately for the Cyclones, that success was mostly thanks to three players who will not be returning. The aforementioned White and Christopherson along with senior Chris Allen, who was third on the team in scoring with 12.2 points per game. They will have the services of troubled former Michigan State Spartan point guard Korie Lucious, who was forced to redshirt last season due to NCAA transfer rules. Lucious will help lessen the blow of losing their big three, but his historical numbers (6.5ppg in his last season as a Spartan) aren't strong enough to make up for the loss of any of those three. The Cyclones bring in an ESPN top 100 recruit in power forward Georges Niang, to help replace the loss of White. Don't expect the Cyclones to be anywhere near the team they were last season. 


Key Player: Melvin Ejim. The 6'6'', 220lbs, sophomore forward was second on the team in rebounds, with 6.6 per game, and fourth in points, with 9.3 per game. With the loss of Royce White, Ejim will look to take over the leading role in the front court and has the skills to go off for a double-double on any given night, especially so without the focus of the Cyclone offense being on White. 


9. December 5th in Provo.
Utah State Aggies, Western Athletic Conference.
2011-12 record: 21-16 (8-6) 4th WAC.
Postseason: Lost 67-70 to Mercer in the CIT Championship Game.


Key Losses: Brockeith Pane. The senior point guard led the team in usage percentage, assist rate and assists with 4.3 per game, was second with 12.6 PPG and 32.3 MPG.


The Aggies started last season by beating the Cougars 69-62 in Logan. From there they went on to another solid season, though it was significantly less impressive than their past few. The Aggies sat at 17-15 after getting bounced in their first game of the WAC tournament by Louisiana Tech, but that was seen as good enough to earn a berth in the CIT. From there they went on to win four more games, all at home thanks to the strangeness of the CIT, including a win over Loyola Marymount in the quarterfinals. Those four wins put them over 20 wins for the 13th straight season. They marched all the way to the CIT championship game where they fell, once again at home, to Mercer. Interestingly, the Aggies will be the third team BYU faces that had their 2011-12 season end at the hands of Mercer.


Key Player: Preston Medlin. The 6'4'', 175lbs redshirt junior guard is coming off a strong sophomore campaign. Last season Medlin led the team in points, points per shot minutes, and steals per game with 17, 1.29, 35.2, and 0.7. He also led the team in free throw percentage, effective field goal percentage, and three point percentage with 80.1, 61.2, and 42.8.


10. December 8th in Provo.
Utah Utes, Pac 12 Conference.
2011-12 record: 6-25 (3-15) 11th Pac-12.


Key Losses: Utah was awful last season and as a result they have caught a bad case of the transfer bug. Six players will be leaving, none to graduation, and only one is transferring in (Loyola Marymount's Jarred DuBois). Kareem Story, Javon Dawson, Dijon Farr, Chris Hines, George Matthews, and Anthony Odunsi, are all leaving. Chris Hines is the worst loss, as he was second on the team in scoring with 9.6 points per game.

Utah's first season in the Pac-12 was as bad as the conference as a whole. Like the two seasons before last, Utah managed to win less games than the year prior. The team's only senior, Jiggy Watkins, was dismissed from the team on January 20th, he had led the team in points and assists per game and 15.6 and 4.8 respectively. When they played BYU on December 10th the Utes managed only 42 points in a losing effort. In their first Pac-12 game on December 31st, the Utes showed they could be even worse, and lost at Colorado by 40 points, as they managed to score only 33 in the game. The lone bright spot for the team is that they lose so many players from this awful squad that it is hard to imagine the replacements being as ineffective as their predecessors.

Key Player: Jason Washburn. The 6'10'', 244lbs junior center took over first place in points per game (11.2) with the dismissal of Jiggy Watkins. He also led the team in rebounds with 6.2 per game, blocks with 1.4 per game, field goal percentage at 55.2%, and free throw percentage at 77.4%.

11. December 15th in Ogden.
Weber State Wildcats, Big Sky Conference.
2011-12 record: 25-7 (14-2) 2nd Big Sky.
Postseason: Second round CIT, lost 78-84 to Loyola Marymount.

Key Losses: Damian Lillard. The 6'3'' redshirt junior guard finished second in the nation in scoring last season with 24.5 points per game. His impressive season resulted in being drafted with the 6th pick in the NBA Draft by the Portland Trail Blazers. Lillard's lowest scoring total for a game, 14 points in a loss to Cal, was only .5 points lower than the team's second leading scorer's average.

Behind Damian Lillard the Wildcats ran up an impressive win total last season. However, as is often the case with mid-major programs, their 25 wins came against rather weak teams. Their strength of schedule was 225th in the nation. In their season series with Big Sky rival and 2012 champion Montana, the Wildcats went 1-2, and that one win may have been their best. The Wildcats did schedule tough teams, as any mid major with big dance aspirations should, but fell to each of them. Saint Mary's handed the Wildcats their first loss, a 17 point drubbing, on November 28th. Two games later Brigham Young pounded the Wildcats by 28 points. Then two games after that California beat the Wildcats by 20. This game wasn't scheduled, but Loyola Marymount beat the Wildcats in the second round of the CIT on March 18th, despite Damian Lillard's 27 point performance. Without Damian Lillard the Wildcats will be a vastly different, which most likely means significantly worse, team next season. The best hope for Weber State in their match-up with BYU is that the Wildcats were 16-0 at home last season.

Key Player: Scott Bamforth. The 6'2'' guard played second fiddle to Damian Lillard last season. In his two seasons in Ogden he averaged 13.4 points per game (14.5 last season) which is good for fifth all time at Weber State. He is capable of going off on any given night, his season high was 28 against Utah State, but is certainly no Damian Lillard. He will have to make up for the loss of their lottery pick guard though, and since he was second in minutes per game and usage percentage, 32.1 and 38.5% respectively, is the most capable Wildcat to attempt to do just that.


12. December 18th in Provo.
Eastern New Mexico Greyhounds, Lone Star Conference (Division-II).
2011-12 record: 14-14 (7-11) T-6th Lone Star.

Since Eastern New Mexico is not a D-1 team, or even a strong team in D-2, I am not going to write about them.

13. December 21st in Waco, Texas.
Baylor Bears, Big 12 Conference.
2011-12 record: 30-8 (12-6) T-3rd Big 12.
Postseason: 3 seed NCAA tournament, lost 70-82 to 1 seed Kentucky in the Elite 8.

Key Losses: Perry Jones III. The 6'11'' forward led the team in rebounds with 7.6 per game and was second in points (only .3ppg behind the team leader) with 13.5 per game. Jones III went to the Oklahoma City Thunder as the 28th pick in the NBA Draft. Quincy Acy: Led the team in field goal percentage at 57.7% and blocks per game with 1.8. Acy was third in scoring with 12 points per game. The senior forward was taken as the 37th pick in the NBA Draft by the Toronto Raptors. Quincy Miller: The freshman forward was fourth on the team in scoring with 10.6 points per game. Miller was taken with the 38th pick in the NBA Draft by the Denver Nuggets.

Baylor had an incredible season last year with 30 wins including 17 straight to start the season, a trio of NBA Draft picks, and a trip to the Elite 8. Naturally such a season, if it must end in a loss, should end at the hands of the eventual national champion, as it did in the Bears' case. Baylor played a ridiculous schedule, 10th in the nation in SOS, including games against Saint Mary's, Brigham Young, and San Diego State, and they won all three of those. Baylor's great season will cost them next year, as they lose their three main cogs in Perry Jones III, Quincy Acy, and Quincy Miller. They do return their leading scorer, senior point guard Pierre Jackson (13.8ppg), and his backcourt mate, junior guard Brady Heslip. Beyond those two though, this will be a very different Baylor team next season, as besides Jackson and Heslip, the Bears return virtually none of their production or minutes from last season. Since they're losing their front court to the NBA, Scott Drew's staff has assembled one of the top recruiting classes in the nation for the 2012 season. Four of the five recruits have ESPN grades above 90, the lone one below 90 has a grade of 89. The top recruit, 7' center Isaiah Austin, is a McDonald's All American and ranked the #3 member of the 2012 class. Joining Austin in the front court is 6'7'' power forward Ricardo Gathers who is 36th in the ESPN top 100. It will be interesting to see how Brandon Davies fares against these extremely talented youngsters.

Key Player: Pierre Jackson. Led the team in scoring despite not being one of Baylor's big three. Jackson wisely returned for his senior season. Jackson was named an AP All-American Honorable Mention, All-Big-12 first team, and was a finalist for the Bob Cousy Award which goes to the nation's top point guard.


14. December 27th in Provo.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks, Big Sky Conference.
2011-12 record: 5-24 (1-15) 9th Big Sky.

Key Losses: James Douglas. In his freshman season in Flagstaff Douglas led the Lumberjacks with 11.8 points per game. Apparently Douglas didn't enjoy his 5 win season and has decided to transfer out of the program. Durrell Norman: The only senior on the Lumberjacks' roster last season, Norman led the team in rebounds per game at 5.9. He was third in scoring and field goal percentage with 9.8ppg and 48.5%.

For the Lumberjacks 2011-12 was a season to forget. Their coach resigned in December and from then on things were absolutely dismal in Flagstaff. The Lumberjacks' last win came on December 29th against Sacramento State. Their total of five wins is deceiving, as two of them came against non-D-1 opponents in Arizona Christian and Northern New Mexico. Fans of Northern Arizona have reason to be optimistic about the future, and not just because a season worse than last would be hard to pull off. Former Memphis assistant Jack Murphy was hired to be the new head coach. He starts his time in Flagstaff with a roster full of young players.

Key Player: Gabe Rogers. In his junior season the 6'2'' guard was second on the team in points per game with 10.2. He is however, a terrible shooter, or as is often said of those types, a "volume shooter". Last season Rogers hit only 31% of his shots. Unfortunately for the Lumberjacks, he's the only real scorer returning.

15. December 29th at EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City.
Virginia Tech Hokies, Atlantic Coast Conference.
2011-12 record: 16-17 (4-12) 4 way tie for 9th ACC.

Key Losses: Dorenzo Hudson. The senior guard was the Hokies second leading scorer last season with 10.9ppg. Dorian Finney-Smith. In his freshman campaign the forward put up solid numbers including a team high 7 rebounds per game along with 6.3 points per game. Finney-Smith is transferring to the more successful Florida Gators.

Virginia Tech is never much of a factor in the ACC, and last year was no different. They play in an elite conference but managed only one good win last season. A two point, 47-45, win over Virginia. Though when Brigham Young visited in late January they almost picked up a second quality win as the Cougars escaped by only two points. Had Virginia Tech won that game, things would have been pretty much the same in Blacksburg, but BYU would have been left out of the NCAA tournament. James Johnson was hired on May 1st to take over the head coaching duties in Blacksburg after five seasons as an assistant. He's looking to end a two year slide in wins and a five year absence from the NCAA tournament. Last season the Hokies missed the post season altogether. This is far from the most exciting game on BYU's schedule, but I do really like the idea of a coast conference contest. I'd like to see the WCC and ACC develop this somehow.

That's it for the Cougars' out of conference slate for 2012. The WCC schedule will be released sometime in August. Until then, Cougar fans, this is all you have... but there's some really quality teams in here so it should suffice.

2 comments:

  1. Why would you live in Chicago and write a blog about the WCC...great idea. Your twitter is annoying and you provide the simplest analysis I have ever read.

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    1. Wow, I'm going to rethink everything now. Poignant comment here, person. If only you, whoever you brave, willing to put yourself out in the open, would have left this comment when I posted this and not eight months later I could have saved a lot of time.

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