Where are We Going?

The WCC season is over. Saint Mary's has won both the regular season and tournament championships. The Gaels and Zags will both be big dancing. Brigham Young might, or they might go to the NIT. Loyola Marymount and San Francisco both have post-season hopes, but who knows where they'll be playing, the NIT, CIT or CBI are all in the fray (they're the only ones besides the NCAA by the way).

If Brigham Young doesn't get an invitation to the big dance they will without a doubt be going to the NIT. The Cougars sit firmly on the NCAA tournament bubble as of now. With the Big 6 leagues as well as the Mountain West, Atlantic-10 and Conference USA just getting their tournaments going bid thievery will abound between today and Selection Sunday. Those leagues get so much clout that a team need not even win the auto bid to get an at large. Undeserving teams like Northwestern or Illinois from the Big 10 could win a game or two and snatch up a bid from a better though less popular mid-major (BYU doesn't really fit the typical mid major mold, they're huge and have a whole religion behind them). So Brigham Young will be sweating it out until Sunday, hoping for other bubble teams to lose in their first games. San Francisco and Loyola Marymount are sitting in much different positions.

Loyola Marymount has road wins over Saint Mary's and Brigham Young as well as a win over Saint Louis, the Billikens are expected to get an at large if they don't win the A-10. The Lions were thought by some insiders to be capable of making the NCAA tournament. If you watched them play late in the season you probably felt the same way. Then they lost to San Francisco, a team also mounting a timely surge, in the Quarterfinals of the WCC Tournament. I think that loss will push them out of the 32 team NIT field. The Lions are certainly good enough to win some games there, but now they aren't a lock for the NIT so they probably will get passed up for bigger schools that will draw more attention.

The NIT also gives out auto bids for teams who win their conference's regular season title but fail to get the auto bid in the conference tournament. Saint Mary's went that route last season. Last season the NIT selected with at large berths only 3 teams from outside of the big six leagues plus the A-10, C-USA and MWC. Harvard, Cleveland State and tournament champion Wichita State. Those teams all had at least 23 wins. Essentially if a small school from a mid or low-major conference wants to make the NIT they better run up a gaudy record or win their conference regular season. The NIT has a lot of games televised and the final four take place at Madison Square Garden, no place for teams without fan bases.

Unfortunately for the Lions and Dons that means that unless the NIT selection committee decides to focus on quality of basketball rather than quantity of fans, they'll be headed to the CBI or CIT. The CBI had it's first tournament in 2008, the CIT in 2009. Over those four years of the CBI no WCC team has participated and I'm not sure why, there are plenty of small schools who have so it's not because of fan base size. On the other hand the CIT has welcomed 6 WCC teams. 3 last year, Santa Clara won along with San Francisco and Portland. The Pilots have played in all three, though they certainly won't this year. Because of that history I expect both the Dons and the Lions will be headed to the CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament.

So my post season projections are the obvious Gonzaga and Saint Mary's in the NCAA, BYU in the NIT (though I sure hope the bubble doesn't burst for them) and San Francisco and Loyola Marymount in the CIT. Since these fields aren't determined yet I have absolutely no idea how well these teams will do. BYU could win a few games or lose in the first round, depending on which Matt Carlino shows up. I am confident that, if the Dons and Lions take it seriously, both teams have the capability to win the CIT. Honestly I will be happy if all that happens in these little dances is LMU picks up one win. The WCC has never been home to 5 20 win teams in one season.

Until Sunday I'll be watching basketball games I really don't care much about. I do however care about my bracket so I'll suffer through these games.