I have been working, for a while, on a team-by-team analysis of the Gaels' non-conference schedule as I did for BYU and Gonzaga. I became more and more frustrated the further I went with the analysis. So, now, I am writing this because, for one, I need a break but also because I need to finally explain myself for all those times I've said "I won't get into that now".
Do you remember January 21st, 2012?
On that day Notre Dame upset then undefeated #1 Syracuse. The only remaining undefeated team in the nation... #12 Murray State. The Racers had a magical season that catapulted them into the national spotlight. On January 22nd they were the only undefeated team in the land and were already in conference play. The weakness of the Ohio Valley Conference led many to ponder the idea, which was not farfetched at all, of the Racers running the table. The teams in the OVC had an average RPI ranking of 205.3 at the conclusion of last season, 223.6 if you don't count Murray State. In 2010/11 it was 224.7.
That which made it possible to continue from the 22nd of January into March Madness unbeaten was the same that could keep them from dancing, the weakness of their conference. More than that, their opponents in and out of conference play. The Racers non-conference slate featured three non-D1 opponents (for the numbers I give in this article I had no idea how to factor those teams in, so I didn't and neither does the NCAA selection committee) and no real quality wins. Their best win came against Memphis well before the Tigers' late season quality surge. They beat San Francisco in the Great Alaska Shootout but only by three points, and like Memphis, San Francisco was nothing then like it would be at the end of the season.
During the offseason, when teams schedule games, there is really no certainty as to how teams will perform in the upcoming season. So, if you're trying to schedule a good team you have to look at how they performed in the previous season. Murray State's non-conference opponents, not counting the Bracket Busters game against Saint Mary's because that was out of their control, had an average RPI ranking at the end of the 2010/11 season of 114, ranging from Memphis at 28th to Morgan State at 209th. By the end of last season those teams' average RPI rank was 143rd.
Remember February 9th? That's when #7 Murray State dropped a home game to Tennessee State and fell to 23-1. That's also when the talk of the Racers running the table transformed dramatically into talk of what the Racers had to do to make the big dance.
Really?! This team was undefeated for almost the entire season and now, when there is less than a month left in the regular season, they have one loss and it's time to jump ship on the Racers? Now, of course, winning the OVC's auto bid was still likely and that would silence the talk. But, what if the Racers don't manage that, are they worthy? What if they drop their game against Saint Mary's, would their bracket dreams be busted? Neither of those happened in the end, but the questions were legitimate none-the-less.
(Personal note: I was very unhappy with all that talk and felt that some .500 team from a big time conference getting in over the Racers would be an abomination, but as I have been researching this I see where the talk came from.)
What does this have to do with Saint Mary's in 2012/13? These two teams, despite heading into their respective seasons in question with completely different trajectories and expectations, set themselves up quite similarly.
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| All statistics based on prior season unless otherwise noted. Click for larger size. |
Let's say Saint Mary's goes undefeated thru their non-conference slate (which they should do easily). Then there is the ever improving play of their WCC opponents. The average RPI of the WCC last season was 166.4 not counting the Gaels (they won't play themselves, duh) while the OVC stood at 223.6 not counting Murray State (once again, duh). So, maybe Randy Bennett and his staff think that the strength of the WCC means they can play cupcakes in the non-conference Well, that hasn't really been an accurate thought as the Gaels have not made back-to-back NCAA tournament appearances since Bennett arrived in Moraga. They have only received at-large bids twice, in 2005 and 2008. Since then it's been win the WCC tournament or bust. If history, recent at least, is to be trusted then Gonzaga will win the auto-bid this year, as these two teams have taken turns winning it over the past four years.
If the Gaels enter WCC play undefeated they will face their first real test on January 10th in Spokane. Gonzaga is much improved from last season and the same can be said for Brigham Young. In fact, Loyola Marymount is looking to continue their surge and they will play the Gaels before the Zags do. So, since I'm throwing a bunch of conjecture onto the page right now, let's say the Gaels are swept by the Zags and Cougars (very possible). Do they get into the dance as an at-large? Take a look at history.
Last year Brigham Young was swept by the Gaels in the regular season and split their series with Gonzaga. They also dropped a game to Loyola Marymount. They did get an at-large bid, but just barely, and landed in the "first four" games in Dayton. I'm going to attribute that to the fact that BYU played quality teams in their non-conference.
If this year's schedule was put to last year's team, with Rob Jones double-doubles, I wouldn't be so concerned. After all, the Gaels won the WCC outright last year with that squad. This year though, they don't have that veteran front court machine. The Gaels could be an injury away from a trip to one of those other post-season tournaments.
Oh yeah, and the statistics I give for the Gaels are assuming the Anaheim Classic shakes out based on last year's higher RPI team winning. That would put the Gaels up against Xavier and Cal. A loss by either of those two, or the Gaels, and the situation is much more dire than it already is.
Coach Bennett, learn from your past and Murray State, please. Mid-major conference teams don't get the respect they deserve. I mean, just look at Drexel, they won 29 games last season but didn't win the CAA, and they didn't dance... but I won't get into that now.
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