Preseason Predictions: First Place

#1 Gonzaga Bulldogs

2011-12 Record: 26-7 (13-3) 2nd WCC, RPI: 25

NCAA Tournament Round of 32, 7 seed.

2011-12 Recap: 

Gonzaga entered last season in a strange position, they weren't the outright owners of the WCC regular season title, that would end up being an omen.

They had to replace two starters in the backcourt, and it didn't take long to accomplish that. In the second game of the season, Against local rival Washington State to start the ESPN Tip Off Marathon the 1-0 Zags started Kevin Pangos at point. He had 33 points and made nine three pointers in the contest, catapulting himself into the national hoops mainstream. Soon after he was joined in the starting lineup by fellow freshman Gary Bell Jr.

The Zags won their first five games, but most were painfully close down the stretch. They played Hawaii in Vancouver to honor fifth year senior Robert Sacre, as he is from North Vancouver. The fifth game, against Notre Dame in the Kennel, was a blowout twenty point victory for the Zags to push them to 5-0.

In an unusual start to the season that saw Gonzaga play no road games in the month of November, with only one game (the Vancouver game) not taking place in the Kennel. Even a big time program, Notre Dame, agreed to play on campus. Gonzaga's former anybody-anywhere approach to scheduling was being phased out it seemed, as they were able to draw the big programs to Spokane unlike in the past. On the flip side of that, the negative of playing so many home games is an inability to build toughness. That was evident in the Zags first road game of the season.

On December 3rd the Zags faced Illinois in Champaign's hostile, 16,600 seat Assembly Hall.  The Illini beat the Zags 72-65 in a game that saw Robert Sacre foul out while trying to battle Meyers Leonard in the paint. Leonard would be the 11th pick in the NBA draft and Sacre the 60th (and final). The Illini entered the top-25 with the win. A week later Michigan State did the same, but this time at the Kennel. The Spartans added a game to Gonzaga's losing streak, making it a two game streak and technically turning it from a single loss to a streak of losses, as well as to the Zags all time record at the McCarthey Athletic Center, bringing their loss total to seven. The Zags sat at 6-2 after the 74-67 loss to the Spartans.

That short streak was followed by a long one, an eight game winning streak. Starting with a win at home over Oral Roberts. Then, in the Battle in Seattle, an 11 point win over Arizona for bragging rights as "best in the west". Another bragging rights game, "best Bulldogs", "best mid-major", "best Cinderella", came against Butler on December 20th. The Zags beat the Bulldogs soundly, 71-55. That was followed by a 10 point win over Air Force.

The Zags entered WCC play at 9-2 and had played only one true road game. They opened the WCC season on December 28th against Portland by blowing the pilots out in Spokane 90-51. Incidentally I ran into David Stockton at Atilano's Mexican restaurant after the game. Unfortunately I was not operating this blog at the time so our conversation was far less substantive than it could have been.

On New Years Eve the Zags took an early break from WCC play with a trip to Cincinatti to face Xavier. Sam Dower had a breakout game on national TV and the Zags beat the Musketeers, in another battle for "best mid-major", 72-65. Gary Bell showed his incredible defensive ability by holding then all-American candidate Tu Holloway to just two points. At the start of 2012 the Zags were 11-2. 

Santa Clara came to town for the Zags first game of the new year and got beat down by 22.

The Zags winning streak ended in brutal form at Saint Mary's, with an 83-62 loss to the Gaels. Another omen, the Gaels now had wins over both BYU and Gonzaga and sat alone atop the conference standings.
The Zags bounced back with wins over Loyola Marymount, San Diego, San Francisco and Portland and took a four game win streak into their first trip to Provo and the Marriott Center. The Cougars had three losses already in WCC play. Two of which were at home including a loss to Saint Mary's in their previous game that gave the Gaels the season sweep. BYU bounced back from their losses and kept themselves in the WCC title hunt with an 83-73 win over Gonzaga. Gonzaga now sat two games back of Saint Mary's in the standings and only one above the Cougars.

Another four game winning streak followed. The second win in that streak was critical. The Gaels, ranked #13, came to Spokane, and left bruised from a 73-59 revenge beatdown. Gonzaga stayed alive in the WCC title hunt thanks to a season split with the Gaels. Loyola Marymount would go on to beat Saint Mary's to put the Zags into a tie with Saint Mary's for first place. 

Unfortunately for the Zags, San Francisco still had to be faced on the Hilltop. Gonzaga has been unable to win much at San Francisco and this year was no different. The only difference being the loss put ownership of the WCC title out of Gonzaga's hands. San Francisco won 66-65 thanks to a last second bucket.

In the Zags next game they got revenge on BYU with a 74-63 win in Spokane. Finishing up WCC play with a win over San Diego, the Zags were 23-5, 13-3 in WCC play, and for the first time since 2000, did not own at least a share of the WCC regular season title.

In the WCC tournament the Zags faced BYU in their first game and beat the Cougars once again, this time 77-58. Gonzaga faced rival Saint Mary's in the WCC Tournament Final. This time it was Saint Mary's with the upper hand, for the first time ever. Gonzaga's historic streak was on the line. The game was a classic in the rapidly developing rivalry. Elias Harris hit a three at the end of regulation to send the game into overtime but Saint Mary's was too much, and they won 78-74. 

Gonzaga entered Selection Sunday at 25-6. They drew a 7 seed and were sent to face 10 seed West Virginia in Pittsburgh, PA. The Mountaineers, with the worse seed, were playing just over an hour from their campus while Gonzaga was playing across the country. The Zags beat up on the Big East representative with a 77-54.
The Win resulted in a round of 32 match up with 2 seed Ohio State. The Zags had the lead over the Buckeyes for most of the first half. Jared Sullenger, The Ohio State University's highly touted big man who surprisingly returned for his sophomore season, was held in check pretty well. At the half the Buckeyes had a two point lead. For the first ten minutes of the second period the Buckeyes pulled away but Gonzaga made a run to close the lead to two with six minutes remaining. Gary Bell hit an extremely tough, well defended three with 12 seconds left to cut the lead to four but the Buckeyes would hit some free throws and push the lead to seven. The Zags lost 73-66 but had a lot to be happy about going forward.

Key Losses:

• Robert Sacre, Senior, Center. The 7', 260lbs fifth year senior was the emotional leader of the team. Sacre was second in scoring with 11.3ppg, second in rebounding with 6.3rpg and led the team in free throws made with 150. Sacre was drafted by the Los Angeles Lakers with the final pick in the NBA Draft and made their opening day roster.

Key Additions:

• Przemek Karnowski, Freshman, Center. At 7'1'', 305lbs, the big Polish kid will be an instant replacement for Sacre at least in terms of size. The Zags beat Cal, Duke, Kansas and Marquette at the recruiting game for the services of Karnowski. He is already being projected as a NBA Draft pick after his sophomore season. 
• Drew Barham, Junior, Wing. The 6'6'' transfer from Memphis comes to Gonzaga and is eligible immediately. He didn't get a lot of playing time at Memphis but will be a nice addition to provide depth at the three for the Zags. 

Positives:

• Young backcourt is older.
  Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell Jr. were surprising in their freshman seasons. Not only did they lead the Zags with poise but they were the two best offensive weapons on the team. Pangos led the team in scoring and Bell led, by a huge margin, in effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage. Bell would lock down the opposing team's best player and Pangos would light it up from three (at home, not so much on the road). The freshman problems, though few and far between, should be improved upon this season. Gary Bell should be getting more shots, Kevin Pangos should be missing less threes on the road. This was the WCC's best backcourt last year, it was one of the nation's best by the end of the season, and now as just sophomores this duo forms one of college basketball's elite backcourts. With accelerated improvement they could just be the best in the game.
• Elias Harris' make or break year.
  He could have been a lottery pick had he declared for the NBA Draft after his freshman year. Instead, a slow Sophomore slump followed. Last season was Harris' best yet, but because of his explosive Freshman year it still looks almost like a let down. Harris was second in scoring and first in rebounding last year plus his three point shot started falling regularly. He's all-WCC this preseason and on various national award watch lists. That won't be enough to guarantee being a draft pick though. Harris will need to have his best year yet, significantly better than last season, if he wants to rest easy in the nights leading up to the draft. That should be no problem either, as he is poised to average a double-double this season.
• Depth.
  The Zags return four starters and the one they lost, center Robert Sacre, played the position at which they have the most returning talent. The Zags have three legitimate starters at Center going into this season, junior Sam Dower who seems to be in the lead for the job and has been tabbed by some sportswriters as primed for a breakout year, junior Kelly Olynyk who is coming off of a wisely taken redshirt year after being a nice contributor in his first two seasons, and the incoming freshman Przemek Karnowski who could overtake Dower or Olynyk for the job once he is up to game speed. Regardless of who starts the other two can come in and there will be almost no drop off for the Zags. David Stockton is one of the best back-up point guards in the game. Mike Hart, a walk on Senior who exemplifies what it means to wear Gonzaga on your jersey, while a total offensive liability is the hardest working player I've ever seen in a Zag uniform, not to mention a solid defender. Redshirt freshman Kyle Draginis was Idaho's Gatorade Player of the Year in his junior and senior seasons, he should be a strong back up for Gary Bell. This Zags team is extremely deep and can run out so many different combinations that other teams will be worn down very quickly.

Best Case Scenario:
Pangos and Bell continue to improve and run the offense like seniors, not sophomores. Elias Harris is a monster, picks up close to 20 points a game and averages over 10 boards. Karnowski comes in and is able to contribute immediately, either off the bench behind Dower or as the starter. Whoever doesn't start at the five remains committed and is a very effective sixth man for the Zags. They win the Old Spice Classic, along with every other non-conference game they play. If those things happen the Zags will enter WCC play undefeated, with big wins over teams like West Virigina, Baylor and Kansas State, and will look completely unstoppable.

Negatives:

• Leadership?
  Well, you know things are looking up for the Zags when this is the only real negative I could come up with. The loss of Robert Sacre means 11 points and 6 rebounds per game need to be replaced and exceptional defensive positioning down low are lost. More of a loss than either of those, however, is the loss of the leader of this team. Sacre was a vocal, intense, and always positive personality. He wasn't the statistical leader many expected him to be but his emotional leadership was the foundation of the 2011-12 Gonzaga Bulldogs. That is impossible to replace.
  So, who then will step up and lead this team forward? Elias Harris in his senior season could, or Kevin Pangos running the offense could. Kelly Olynyk, after a year on the bench with a clipboard working with the coaching staff, could emerge from his redshirt season as some sort of stats wizard and lead the Zags. Who knows who will, but someone needs to.

Worst Case Scenario:
No improvement over last season from any of the players to start this year. Pangos and Bell suffer a sophomore slump. Dower can't replace Sacre inside, Olynyk can't either, and Karnowski isn't nearly close to ready for the American college game. The Zags don't win in the Old Spice Classic, drop a couple other games here or there, and fall out of the top-25. If those things happen, Gonzaga enters WCC play with two to four losses and, while still probably the best team in the league, begin a three way battle for first place.

Thoughts on 2012-2013:
This could be the best Gonzaga team ever assembled. I've not had this much faith that the Zags could make a lot of noise since Adam Morrison's junior year. They have legitimate all-WCC candidates at every position. They have legitimate backups at every position, all of whom could be starters at other schools in the WCC. I'm very excited about this team's chances in March.
My biggest concern is the scheduling. Last year saw a marked difference in Coach Few's non-conference philosophy. Instead of flying back and forth across the country to play big name teams at their leisure, he had them come to Spokane. This year is much the same, except, notably, with less of those big names. I'm worried that the lack of road games, at Washington State on December 5th and at Oklahoma State on December 31st, will be detrimental down the stretch and in big games. Also, neither of those games are against particularly great opponents.
The Zags haven't been in this position in a long time. Probably since before you knew anything about them, particularly how to pronounce Gonzaga. They enter this season not as reigning champions. They've reloaded, though, and should be ready to take the championship back. Beyond that, Atlanta is the limit for the team. I'm hoping that both of my brackets, not just my dream bracket, has the Zags in the Final Four. This could should be the year.

(Editors Note: I will revisit each team's Preseason Prediction at the start of WCC play to recap, revise and repost them. It's hard to predict a team's season when they haven't played a game yet. Injuries, breakouts and disappearances can come out of nowhere. Hopefully my predictions for each team's place in the standings stay true, but hopefully each team does far better than I expect them to at this point.)