Preseason Predictions: Sixth Place

#6 San Francisco Dons

2011-12 Record: 20-14 (8-8) 5th WCC RPI: 136
Postseason: CBI First Round.

2011-12 Recap: 

Last season was up and down for the Dons. They lost their first game to North Dakota State but followed that loss with a five game winning streak. On Friday, November 25th, in Anchorage, Alaska for the Great Alaska Shootout the Dons came fell to Murray State 67-70 for their second loss of the season. A late game surge that brought them within one point with under a minute to play nearly derailed the Racers magical season. Had the Dons managed to put up four more points the Racers wouldn't have been the last unbeaten team in the land and Isaiah Cannan would still be a relative unknown.

Entering WCC play at 9-4 the Dons lost four straight games and found themselves at the bottom of the conference despite having a winning record overall. Three of those four losses came to BYU, LMU and Saint Mary's, all of which finished above the Dons in the final standings. By the end of January the Dons sat at 5-5 in WCC play. Though their .500 record doesn't show it, thanks mostly to dropping four straight to open the season, the Dons had a late season surge that propelled them into the postseason. On February 16th the Dons fell by one point at the end of the game to BYU. That loss was followed up by a one point win at the end of the game against  24th ranked Gonzaga, which essentially ended the Zags streak of conference titles. Then the Dons played the third game in a row against a team which would make the NCAA tournament when they hosted 23rd ranked Saint Mary's on February 25th. The game was a battle all night long with the Dons and Gaels trading leads in the first half but the Gaels managed to pull ahead late for a 67-60 win. Despite going only one for three in those games the Dons showed they could hang with the big boys. 

In the WCC Tournament the Dons breezed past Portland in their first game and then upset Loyola Marymount, the cinderella of last season, in the Quarterfinals. That win gave the Dons 20 on the season and made them the fourth WCC team to reach that mark. In the Semis the Dons once again battled with the Gaels but once again came up short at the end 83-78. Cody Doolin fueled the late season surge and put up 28 points to lead all scorers in the loss.

San Francisco received an invitation to the CBI postseason tournament where they fell to eventual runner up Washington State in the first game. Despite the loss things were looking good for the future of this once dominant program.

Key Losses:

• Angelo Colario, Senior, Forward. Led the team in points with 14.2ppg Second in rebounds and assists with 6rpg and 2.3apg.
• Rashad Green, Senior, Guard. Starter, played in 33 of 34 games. 11.8 points per game, 5.2 rebounds per game, 2.2 assists per game.
• Perris Blackwell, Junior, Forward. Transferred to Washington. Led the team in rebounds with 6.1rpg. Second in points with 12.7ppg.
• Michael Williams, Junior, Guard. Transferred to Cal State Fullerton. Starter, played in 31 of 34 games. 11.1 points per game, 2.3 rebounds per game, 1.4 assists per game.
  
  The Dons lose five other players, four to transfers. The Dons' lose players responsible for 4451 of the 6851 total minutes played last season.

Key Additions:

• De'End Parker, Junior, Forward. Initially a JC pickup for UCLA, Parker suffered a knee injury early last season and was granted a medical redshirt. He transferred to San Francisco to be closer to his ailing mother, because of that the NCAA is granting him immediate eligibility. He will provide instant impact as a starter for the Dons.
• Matt Christiansen, Freshman, Center. The 6'9'', 235lbs Oklahoman out of Bishop McGuinness High School in Oklahoma City has a grade of 86 from ESPN and is ranked the #2 recruit coming out of Oklahoma. San Francisco beat three major conference schools, Seton Hall, Stanford and Penn State, for Christiansen.
• Tim Derksen, Freshman, Guard. The 6'4'', 185 Amphitheater High School product from Tucson, AZ will get opportunities to run the offense behind Cody Doolin.
• Frank Rogers, Sophomore, Forward. After a year in juco land at Cabrillo College in the 6'8'' big man made himself known during the Dons' summer games in Cancun.

Positives:

• Cody Doolin remains.
  While he wasn't often the player that stuck out on the box score, he was arguably the best player on the hilltop last season. Doolin was the only starter who averaged under 10 points per game (9.3ppg) but he didn't need to do much scoring. He ran the offense smoothly which resulted in all four other starters averaging double digits in points. When he needed to, which was often in the biggest of games, Doolin would step up and score (see his 28 point performance in the Dons' loss to Saint Mary's in the WCC semis.) In a WCC where guard play reigns supreme Cody Doolin is often overlooked but he shouldn't be. Returning a two year starter at point guard could well be the saving grace for this Dons' squad.
• Great recruting at the right time.
  Rex Walters may not have seen the loss of nine players coming, but he sure recruited as if he knew something like that would happen. Members of the freshman class arriving on the hilltop this winter received grades of 87, 86, 83 and 83, the others were not seen by scouts (Frank Rodgers and De'End Parker came from a JC and Tao Xu, a 6'11'' Chinese center transplanted to Pennsylvania is very under the radar). On top of those freshmen De'End Parker arrives with immediate eligibility from UCLA, where he would have been a major player had he not suffered a season ending knee injury after only two games. Unfortunately the chemistry will not be there immediately with such a large new group, but the talent is.
• New look.
  The new logos and uniforms are rad.

Best Case Scenario:
Cody Doolin is able to go from quiet conductor to out front leader of the Dons. Cole Dickerson makes a seamless transition from sixth man to lead big man. De'End Parker's athleticism is as advertised. The freshman class is able to play at the college level immediately like we saw last year with the backcourts in Spokane and San Diego. The Dons pick up a couple wins against the good teams on their non-conference slate (Stanford, Montana, Nevada, San Diego State and possibly Arizona), while only dropping games against those same teams. If those things happen the Dons will be in position to defend their fifth place finish from a year ago. Not exactly a great best case scenario but considering the massive beating this team took during the offseason it would be nearly miraculous.

Negatives:

• New look.
  The Dons lost the players responsible for 1,787 of their 2,563 points scored and 4,451 of their 6,851 minutes played last season. They lose nine players. They lose four of their five starters. Only two significant contributors return from last season. Unless the name on the jersey is "Kentucky" a program can not replace that level of loss without some sort of drop off.
• Rebuilding while others aren't.
  San Francisco looked to challenge the big three programs in the WCC this season after last year's surge. While every program has to replace lost players none of the programs in the WCC have to do such an overhaul as San Francisco.  The teams ahead of the Dons will further their lead on them while the teams below will close the gap if not pass them entirely.
• Problems under the surface?
  What would lead six players to transfer from a program on the rise, especially players who are either starters and or key reserves?

Worst Case Scenario:
Cody Doolin does not make the transition to focal point of the Dons attack and neither does Cole Dickerson. The freshmen play like freshmen. San Francisco drops every game against quality opponents and more. If those things happen the Dons will enter WCC play with only two or three wins (they play two non-D-1 opponents) and will struggle to stay afloat in conference play. A battle at the bottom with Pepperdine and Portland for not-last-place ensues.

Thoughts on 2012-13:
San Francisco has a great non-conference schedule for where they are at right now. A mix of high major programs and strong mid-majors. Among the high-majors are elites (Arizona if they face them), up and down teams (Stanford) and underperformers Seton Hall. There are strong mid-majors like San Diego State and Nevada. There's Montana, which competes for the Big Sky auto bid yearly (the only bid the conference ever gets). Those games will make this squad tough, which it needs to become. With victories in them, the Dons' self confidence will skyrocket. There are also enough games against weak teams to provide breaks and confidence boosting easy victories.
It will be very, very interesting to see how this team fits together over the course of the non-conference, particularly in the opener against a challenging Stanford squad. I became somewhat enamored by San Francisco last season (despite being raised a Gonzaga fan and watching the Dons kill the Zags hopes of another WCC title), and LMU as well, so I will be watching this team closely. If the Dons can stay afloat they have a bright future. Their freshman class could be stellar and going forward should become one of the league's best. This is a program that has won multiple national championships. It was a powerhouse in the mid 20th century. A successful San Francisco is, like any other successful team in the conference, good for the WCC. San Francisco's history, though, makes a successful San Francisco even more important than any other team outside the top three.

I am higher on the Dons than many, particularly the coaches who have them seventh. Unlike other teams looking to create chemistry (Pepperdine) or recreate some magic from the past (Santa Clara) I feel San Francsico has the best shot at success despite the odds being so against them. This is a program with long and storied history of success, and a recent history of playing up to their better opponents. Those aren't things that show up on paper, they are intangible, but they are just as important. If the Dons continue to work as they have, which I see no reason for a change in that mentality, they will outperform their expected, on paper, result.

(Editors Note: I will revisit each team's Preseason Prediction at the start of WCC play to recap, revise and repost them. It's hard to predict a team's season when they haven't played a game yet. Injuries, breakouts and disappearances can come out of nowhere. Hopefully my predictions for each team's place in the standings stay true, but hopefully each team does far better than I expect them to at this point.)