20 win teams:
Last season, for the first time ever, five WCC teams had 20+ win seasons. At this point in the season that didn't look too probable. How does this season compare?
(Through seven conference games)
Based on last year it doesn't look like there will be five WCC teams with 20 or more wins by the end of the season. It took San Francisco until the WCC tournament to pick up win number 20 and Loyola Marymount, which eventually made it to 21, needed the CIT to hit 20. The Lions also had an ESPN Bracket Busters game to help pad their win total. Unfortunately for this year the two teams participating in Bracket Busters don't need that help. The Lions stand no chance of hitting 20 wins and the Gaels all but assured of making it well past 20.
There are two teams with records close what San Francisco and Loyola Marymount had at this time last season, Pepperdine and San Diego, do either of these teams have much of a chance to hit 20 wins? According to KenPom the answer is a resounding "no". However let there be some cautious encouragement for these two squads. At this point last season San Francisco was only 2-5 in WCC play. The Dons would go on to lose only to teams that would finish above them in the WCC standings (LMU & BYU once and Saint Mary's twice). Their bad start wasn't undone by their strong finish and they finished the season 5th in the standings. 5th place means no bye in the WCC Tournament and thus, more chances to play games and more chances to win games. They would pick up two wins in Vegas and hit the 20 win mark in the quarterfinals against LMU.
This season's two contenders are in slightly more precarious positions. San Francisco had to play the four teams above them in the standings once more during the regular season. Both Pepperdine and San Diego face this year's version of those four teams five times. The Dons picked up a win against Gonzaga in the second half of the regular season. If the Waves or Toreros can pick up two wins against the league's top teams this year without moving into 4th place, thus earning a bye in the tournament, they have a sliver of hope for a 20 win season.
25 wins?
If you read just about any release from WCC Sports you've been made aware again and again that there are only five teams in D1 college basketball to have hit 25 wins in each of the past five seasons. Duke, Kansas, BYU, Gonzaga and Saint Mary's. That's pretty impressive for the WCC. While four of BYU's five seasons came in the Mountain West last season came in the WCC and marked the first time that there were three WCC teams with 25 wins in one season.
Can that happen again?
Once again KenPom is a naysayer. He predicts Gonzaga to finish the regular season with 28 wins but no other WCC team to hit 25. However the final record counts games after the end of the regular season. While both Saint Mary's and BYU could miss out on the NCAA Tournament both will be NIT teams at worst. Santa Clara will be in a postseason tournament barring some complete meltdown.
If you refer to the chart above you'll see that BYU had 16 wins at this point last season and managed to win the nine needed games to hit 25. This year both BYU and Santa Clara sit a 16-6 right now. So it is conceivable that this year could see four WCC teams hit 25 wins. That possibility may however make it more difficult. There are four very good teams in the league this year rather than three. Less easy wins to be had. If these four teams stay in the top four come WCC Tournament time they will have to face each other in the semi-finals (assuming the teams ranked #3 and #4 win their quarterfinal match ups). That will provide viewers with some great hoops but it means that only two of those teams will have the ability to move closer to 25.
Here's hoping that these teams get as close to 25 as possible by the end of the WCC season and then make long runs in their postseason tournaments. Four 25 win teams would be amazing. Only the Big East and Big Ten managed to pull that off last season.
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