We're three weeks into February. That means there is only one week left until March Madness. Though don't let the calendar fool you into thinking that this will be one final week of calm. It may not have the same alliterative ring but February madness is upon us.
7:00 PM PST
San Francisco Dons at Loyola Marymount Lions
Gersten Pavilion, Los Angeles, California.
San Francisco is 11-15 on the season, 4-9 in WCC play and currently on a two game losing streak.
Loyola Marymount is 8-18 on the season, 1-12 in WCC play and currently on a ten game losing streak.
Radio: KXLU 88.9 FM in Los Angeles.
---
San Diego Toreros at Portland Pilots
Chiles Center, Portland, Oregon.
San Diego is 13-14 on the season, 6-6 in WCC play and currently on a two game losing streak.
Portland is 10-18 on the season, 3-10 in WCC play and currently on a one game losing streak.
TV: ROOT Sports Northwest and Rocky Mountain.
Radio: KPDQ 800 AM in Portland and 1090 AM in San Diego.
8:00 PM PST
Brigham Young Cougars at Saint Mary's Gaels
McKeon Pavilion, Moraga, California.
Brigham Young is 20-8 on the season, 9-4 in WCC play and currently on a two game winning streak.
Saint Mary's is 22-5 on the season, 11-2 in WCC play and currently on a one game winning streak.
TV: ESPN2 and ESPN Pacific Rim.
Radio: KSL 1160 AM & 102.7 FM along the Wasatch Front.
Satellite Radio: BYU Radio Sirius XM 143.
Learn about this image by clicking "Read more".
 |
| WCC Tournament Bracket. Click image for larger size. |
As I said above, the season is entering the home stretch. With only one full week remaining it is time for seeding in the WCC Tournament to come into form. The first game on the list is all about the 7, 8 and 9 seeds in the WCC Tournament. Loyola Marymount is on pace to finish in last place and pick up the nine seed. The Lions have clinched their spot in the opening round game. Even if they win this and their two remaining WCC games while the Dons lose all of theirs the two squads will finish with the same WCC record and a series split but the tiebreaker would go to the Dons based on RPI.
San Francisco currently sits in seventh place, but as I just explained could still finish tied for worst WCC record. That is highly unlikely however, as are Dons chances of falling from seventh to eighth. For San Francisco to end up in the opening round game it would have to lose its three remaining games while Portland would have to win two of its remaining three. That's unlikely because the Pilots finish the season vs. Santa Clara then at Gonzaga. Also, it's unlikely because the Dons are playing the lowly Lions tonight.
The opening round game also factors into the second game on the list. A Portland win tonight keeps the potential for a reordering at the bottom of the standings alive, albeit on life support.
The top four teams in the WCC standings earn byes through the first round or two in the tournament. Seeds one and two don't play until the semi-finals while seeds three and four start just one game earlier in the quarter-finals. All season long Santa Clara and San Diego have been alternating between fourth and fifth place. Whenever presented with a chance put some space between each other they've squandered the opportunity. Once again, these two squads sit just half a game apart in the standings, in fourth and fifth place (SCU at 4, USD at 5).
If the Toreros win tonight they will once again move into a tie with the Broncos at 7-6 in WCC play. A tie will not suffice for the Toreros to earn the final bye in Las Vegas as not only have the Toreros been defeated twice this season by the Broncos, but their RPI is far worse (161st vs. 87th). The Toreros must finish in sole possession of fourth place to earn the bye. Assuming the Toreros win tonight, finishing above the Broncos still seems unlikely. Both San Diego and Santa Clara have two very winnable games remaining (SCU: at Portland and vs. LMU. USD: vs. USF and vs. Pepperdine) but also one that would be a massive upset (SCU at Saint Mary's and USD at Gonzaga). If they both finish 2-1 in that stretch Santa Clara wins the tiebreaker and earns the fourth seed and final bye.
The final game of the night has more riding on it than both others combined. Well, probably. I mean I don't know if you can quantify that but I stand by my statement.
First and foremost first place is on the line. Gonzaga, not even playing in this one, can clinch a share of the WCC regular season title with a Saint Mary's loss. The Zags would have to lose their three remaining games, for a WCC record of 13-3, for a three loss Gaels squad to have a shot at a tie at the top.
BYU is currently sitting in third place, and with three games remaining including tonight's, still in the hunt for a second place finish (thus, once again, a double bye). However, tonight's game is in Moraga against the second place Gaels. Then they host the Zags. The Cougars do finish with one-win LMU, which should be enough even if they lose the other to to prevent a drop from third place (considering the remaining schedule of Santa Clara and San Diego, BYU's challengers, which I outlined above).
Perhaps more important than seeding in the WCC tournament are the postseason implications. Saint Mary's is currently, as always, on the NCAA Tournament bubble (Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi both have them in at this time). A loss to BYU, especially at home, would probably be enough to burst their bubble even if they are to beat Creighton (somehow also on the bubble) this weekend. A win against BYU won't be enough to secure a bid, as BYU isn't even in consideration for an at large according to Jerry Palm and is in Joe Lunardi's "next four out" category.
Neither team, barring complete meltdown, is looking at anything worse than the NIT at this point but that's not exactly where either program wants to be.
I'm not a bracketologist, but I do enjoy the occasional foray into such prognostication. That said, I don't see how BYU can earn an at large berth even if it beats both Saint Mary's and Gonzaga as well as whichever one of those two it faces in the WCC semis. It's auto-bid or bust for the Cougars at this point. Which is where seeding in Vegas comes back into play. The Cougars have shown they can lose to lower level WCC teams (San Francisco and San Diego). If they finish in third or fourth place they will have to face one of those lower level teams in their first game in Vegas. This is why a second place finish and double-bye would be so helpful for BYU's big dance chances, less games means less chances for a loss. On the other hand the Cougars haven't shown their ability to beat any team better than them either.
For both the Cougars and the Gaels the outcome of tonight's game will go a long way to securing their post-season destiny. To the victor goes, a better shot at, the spoils (the big dance being the spoils).
There's a lot riding on this game, I guess that's why it's the one on national television.
No comments:
Post a Comment