#1 Gonzaga vs. #16 Southern

NCAA Tournament Round of 64

Thursday, March 21st, 2013, 1:10 PM PDT.

EnergySolutions Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah.

#1 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. #16 Southern Jaguars

Southern hails from the Southwestern Athletic Conference. The Jaguars are 23-9 on the season, 15-3 in SWAC regular season play and currently on a three game winning streak. Southern is 10-9 away from home. 

Gonzaga is 31-2 on the season, 16-0 in WCC regular season play and currently on a 14 game winning streak. Gonzaga is 16-1 away from home.

TV: TBS

Radio: KGA 1510 AM and KEYF 101.1 FM in Spokane, KTEL 1490 AM in Walla Walla, KALE 960 AM in the Tri-Cities, KKRT 900 AM in Wenatchee, KWIQ 1020 AM in Moses Lake and KMAS 1030 AM in the Puget Sound region. 

Satellite Radio: Sirius 93.

Online: Live video from the NCAA.

Southern's offense is horrible, Gonzaga's offense is the best in the country. Southern's defense is good, Gonzaga's defense is great. Yep, this is a one versus sixteen game. No sixteen seed has ever won an NCAA Tournament game.

Gonzaga ranks fifth in the nation in two point field goal percentage. The front line of Kelly Olynyk and Elias Harris with Sam Dower and Przemek Karnowski coming off the bench is a huge (size and impact wise) reason behind that high percentage. However, Southern ranks second in defensive two point percentage.

Gonzaga shoots 55.9% from inside the arc. Southern holds opponents to 40.4% shooting inside the arc. Wow, right? Well, yes that's impressive and I will admit it is impressive before going on to explain why it is a lot less impressive than it appears. 

Disclaimer: Gonzaga is the target of a lot of trash talk because of their perceived softness, weak schedule and because they play WCC teams in the two months leading up to the NCAA Tournament. As someone who has witnessed that sort of flawed logic for as long as I can remember I almost don't want to tear into Southern for their league affiliation and poor scheduling, but my logic isn't flawed.

Southern has held opponents to 40.4% shooting inside the arc, that is true. Those opponents, however, have given Southern the second worst strength of schedule in the nation. Not only does Southern finish the season by playing in the SWAC, which is arguably the worst country in the country. (KenPom.com says it's the worst. In RPI it's second worst, behind only the Great West. The Great West, with five teams, does not qualify for an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, has never sent a team to the NCAA Tournament and is essentially a dead conference walking as only one member is set for next season.) But Southern also played nobody in the non-conference. Iowa State, a loss in their first game of the season, is the only NCAA Tournament team the Jaguars played this year. 22 of their 29 D1 games were against teams below 200 in the RPI.

Not just did Southern put up great defensive numbers against weak teams, but they put up great defensive numbers against teams that are nowhere near the Zags in terms of height.

Of the 18 D1 teams the Jaguars have played this year only seven have a starter taller than Elias Harris (6'8'') and only one has a starter taller than Kelly Olynyk (7'0''). None of those teams came close to the Zags' size up front. The team with the player taller than Olynyk, Alabama A&M, started a 7'1'' guy and 6'5'' guy as their front line. When you add Przemek Karnowski (7'1'') and Sam Dower (6'9'') into the mix it becomes something the Jaguars have never come close to seeing (same for most teams in the tournament).

Okay, this post is pretty late, sorry. I conceptualized a fantastic graph to illustrate the height differential I just explained. Then I drew it on some paper. Then I spent three hours this morning trying to draw it on the computer using two different programs. It was really frustrating and now there are 30 minutes until the Saint Mary's/Memphis game so I have to give up. Here's what I have finished at this point.

Click for full size view.

This is the height of the tallest starter Southern has faced over each game of the season. I was also going to plot the second tallest starter, in order to compare Olynyk/Harris with the other 5/4 starters the Jaguars have seen. Just, take what information I've given and fill in the rest with your imagination.