Tuesday, March 19, 2013

BYU vs. Washington


#6 Washington Huskies at #3 BYU Cougars
Tuesday, March 19th, 2013, 6:30 PM PDT.
Provo, Utah.
Washington hails from the Pac-12. The Huskies went 18-15 on the season, 9-9 in Pac-12 regular season play. They are on a one game losing streak, to Oregon in their second game of the Pac-12 Tournament. Washington is 6-7 away from home this season.
BYU is 21-11 on the season, went 10-6 in WCC regular season play and is currently on a one game losing streak, to San Diego in the WCC Tournament Quarterfinals. The Cougars are 15-3 at home this season.
TV: ESPN
Radio: KSL 1160 AM & 102.7 FM along the Wasatch Front, KMGR 95.9 FM in Manti, KSUB 590 AM in Cedar City, KDXU 890 AM in St. George and KTHK 105.5 FM in Idaho Falls.
Satellite Radio: BYU Radio Sirius XM 143.
Online: Live video from Watch ESPN and live audio from KSL.

BYU has one of the best offenses not playing in the NCAA Tournament. Washington has an offense that is average by national standards. BYU's defense is better than Washington's. BYU is playing at home. Sure fire recipe for a win? Not so fast...

Okay, it pretty much is.

Washington's best quality is offensive rebounding. Normally a team that is really good at offensive rebounding can make up for defects elsewhere. Offensive rebounding allows poor shooting teams, like Washington, to get extra chances to make baskets without having to go through a defensive possession.

The Huskies grab nearly 38% of possible offensive rebounds which puts them at 21st in the nation in that category. They absolutely dominated the Pac-12 on the offensive glass, statistically speaking. Seven foot, 260 pound, senior center Aziz N'Diaye is a big reason for that high rate of rebounding. He grabs over 30% of the Huskies offensive rebounds by himself.

Unfortunately for the Huskies, the one thing they're really good at doing is something that the Cougars are pretty good at stopping. The Cougars allow their opponents to grab just 27.6% of available offensive rebounds, the 37th best in the nation. BYU ranks second in the WCC, behind only Saint Mary's, in rebounding. Considering they're offensive rebounding is pretty pedestrian, 149th in the nation, that high level of rebounding comes from high effort on the defensive glass. BYU's defensive glass is Washington's offensive glass.

The only other thing the Huskies do particularly well is block shots. N'Diaye, the obvious choice for a good blocker due to his height, leads the team with nearly a third of their (17th highest in the nation) block rate. However, Guard C.J. Wilcox is not far behind, accounting for 23.7% of the Huskies blocks. The Cougars and Wilcox are interestingly familiar with each other.

Wilcox, a product of Pleasant Grove HS, just outside of Provo, was recruited by Dave Rose. Tyler Haws and Wilcox have played both with and against each other since sixth grade. The knowledge of Wilcox by the Cougars and of the Cougars, particularly Haws, by Wilcox will be a key aspect in this game.

Can Wilcox use his knowledge of Haws' game to his advantage? If Haws is held well below his average or gets blocked by Wilcox then the answer will be yes, and the Huskies may have a shot at the upset. Can the Cougars use their knowledge of Wilcox to their advantage? If so Wilcox will be held below his team leading points per game average and the Cougars should be in prime position to rebound (both in the game and figuratively) their way out of a disappointing end to their second season in the WCC.

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