Preseason Predictions: Eighth Place

#8 Portland Pilots

2011-12 Record: 7-24 (3-13) 8th WCC, RPI: 238

2011-12 Recap:

The Pilots entered last season having won 20 games the past two seasons and making the postseason CIT the past three. They had looked to be the team to challenge the big three atop the league. Coach Eric Reveno decided to pull an early-2000s-Zags and play an anybody/anywhere non-conference schedule. The Pilots played an insane number of teams that made the postseason, and did so in this order: Georgia State, at Washington, Washington State, at UC Santa Barbara, at Kentucky, at Saint Louis, Ohio, Montana and at Nevada. They also played three other teams, those three others were the only three teams in the Pilots non-conference schedule not to make the postseason. Of those teams named the only win the Pilots managed was against Georgia State.
Last year the Pilots were a young squad, having lost most of the players who led them to 19, 20 and 20 wins in the prior seasons. Apparently that schedule was too grueling for the young team and they wilted away during league play. Other than sweeping winless Santa Clara the Pilots only win in WCC play was against a Pepperdine squad that managed only four WCC wins. The Pilots beat Santa Clara by four points in the WCC Tournament play in game before falling to San Francisco 66-87.

Key Losses:

• Nemanja Mitrovic, Senior, Guard. One of two seniors on the team and the only one who saw significant minutes. Fourth on the team in scoring with 7.9ppg.
• Tim Douglas, Sophomore, Point Guard. Transferred to Portland State. Led team in assists with three per game. 92 assists on the season but 95 turnovers.

Key Additions:

• Bryce Pressley, Freshman, Small Forward. Out of Jesuit High School in Carmichael, CA, the 6'4'', 180lbs Pressley has been compared to former Pilot Luke Sikma (who played in this years' NBA Summer League) by Coach Reveno.
• Oskars Reinfelds, Freshman, Guard. Out of Canarias Basketball Academy in Latvia, the 6'4'' guard will find some familiarity half a world away from home as sophomore center Thomas van der Mars was a teammate of Reinfelds at the Canarias Basketball Academy. Reinfelds will immediately battle for the starting point guard spot vacated by Tim Douglas.

Positives:

• Portland is older and wiser.
  The offseason personnel shuffle didn't hit the Pilots particularly hard. The Pilots' core remains intact and has the experience of surviving one of the most brutal schedules in the country. Once again the Pilots will embark on an equally rigorous schedule, and they may lose just as many as they did last season, but they shouldn't be broken by the time the WCC rolls around. Then again, they may enter league play with four or five wins. In which case they will be not only wiser but better.
• Ryan Nicholas should break out this year.
  Nicholas' 11.5ppg, 7.6rpg, 28.4mpg and 36.4 3pt% were all team bests and his 50.4 fg% was second on the team. The Gonzaga Prep product had to do almost everything for the Pilots last season. Now that his supporting cast has a year under their belts Nicholas should be primed to break through as one of the WCC's best players. At 6'7'', 235lbs with a hustle mindset Nicholas should easily eclipse his sophomore mark of six double-doubles.
• Exposure!
  Portland didn't win any games against their marquee opponents last season, but they played them. This year they will play them again, with rematches against Ohio, Washington State and Kentucky (two of which made the NCAA tournament). The Pilots also face UNLV, New Mexico and Colorado State, all of which made the NCAA tournament last season. A win against any of them would be huge for the program, but even without that the TV coverage can't hurt.

Best Case Scenario:
Ryan Nicholas averages a double-double. Experience does in fact translate into improvement among the underclassmen. The Pilots pick up at least one win against one of the tough opponents in their non-conference schedule. The point guard position is taken over and run effectively, dishing out more assists than turnovers. If those things happen the Pilots should enter WCC play above .500 which seems unfathomable looking at their schedule. From there they are solidly in the middle of the pack in WCC play and challenging for best of the rest (they aren't Gonzaga, Saint Mary's or Brigham Young, obviously). Having been tested in many big games over the past two seasons an upset of a big three team would not surprise.

 
Negatives:

• Fool me once...
  Last season the brutal non-conference schedule and 90-51 defeat at the hands of Gonzaga to open WCC play rattled the the young Pilots. This is still a young team with a core mostly of sophomores. Once again Eric Reveno will pilot Portland thru one of the nation's toughest non-conference slates. Hopefully it works out better than it did last year. At the very least the Pilots will play three WCC games before encountering one of the goliaths of the league (Gonzaga on January 17th in Portland).
• Point guard by committee.
  While Tim Douglas was probably the worst point guard in the WCC, a league full of stellar floor generals, he was the starter. He's gone this season and there is no clear cut replacement. The job could go to senior Derrick Rodgers, who appeared in all 31 games and averaged over 17 minutes per contest but accounted for only 3.8 points and 1.8 assist per contest. Also in the hunt is the Latvian freshman Oskars Reinfelds who could well beat out Rodgers if his chemistry with van der Mars is strong.
• Rate of improvement.
  The WCC is rapidly improving from top to bottom. The top three teams are pretty well set as a class above everybody else. The fastest development comes in the middle of the pack, teams four thru six. Portland should be improved this year, but are the improving fast enough to keep pace with those they want to catch? 

Worst Case Scenario: 
Ryan Nicholas stagnates. The point guard position isn't settled and the lack of continuity causes turnovers and a shaky offense. The Pilots once again get tossed around by their beastly non-conference schedule and enter WCC play in free fall. If that happens they will once again be battling to avoid last place in the WCC, and this year another 0-16 team seems unlikely, so that battle will be harder to win.

Thoughts on 2012-2013:
I can not wait to see how the Pilots handle year two of non-conference death mode. If the Pilots are battle tested and strong from last year's experience they will be one of the most fun teams to watch this season. On the other hand if they aren't, and Eric Reveno's plan fails, that's two straight years of awful performances and a career coaching record well under .500 (he is 85-105 through his first six years). Portland was improving as fast as any team in the league and in the nation under Reveno, so hopefully last year was just a speedbump.
The Pilots have a deep and young front court with the junior and leader Nicholas and sophomores van der Mars, Riley Barker and Dorian Cason. If they can find a suitable point guard that depth should challenge most teams in the WCC up front except for Gonzaga and BYU's Brandon Davies.
The Chiles Center underwent renovations this offseason, the domed building is one of the coolest looking stadiums in the conference.
The massive TV deal with ESPN that the WCC brokered before last season are Gonzaga, BYU and Saint Mary's heavy (as they have to be) but because of Portland's schedule they will be on ESPN (ESPN 1!) in just over a month when they face Kentucky on December 8th.