Preseason Predictions: Seventh Place

#7 Santa Clara Broncos

2011-12 Record: 8-22 (0-16) 9th WCC, RPI: 304.

2011-2012 Recap:

Last season got off to a bad start before it even began for the Broncos. During an exhibition game in Vancouver, British Columbia, Marc Trasolini tore his ACL ruining his homecoming and forcing him to redshirt his senior season. It became clear that this team would not repeat the 24 wins and CIT championship of 2010-11, but nobody expected things to play out the way they did.

Kevin Foster and Evan Roquemore picked up the slack and led the Broncos through the non-conference portion of the season. With wins over New Mexico and Villanova the Broncos entered WCC play looking strong despite the loss of Trasolini. They were 8-5 at the time, coming off a loss against a solid Wagner team when they began the WCC slate in Portland. They lost that game in Portland by only two points, they would lose every game from then on by wider margins.

On January 21st Broncos hosted Bay Area rivals Saint Mary's and lost, again, 93-77. Kevin Foster, the WCC's leading scorer put up 22 points in the loss. That game would be his last on the season, as Foster was arrested for DUI and suspended for the remainder of the season. With both leaders out for the season the hobbled Broncos limped to the finish. Their last game, the WCC Tournament play in game against Portland, would be their final defeat of the season. What began with a promising non-conference record ended at the bottom of the WCC and nowhere to go but up.

Key Losses: 

• None.

Key Additions:

• Nate Kratch, Freshman, Forward: The 6'6'', 213lbs, Watertown, MN product comes to Santa Clara with a grade of 82 from ESPN and is considered to be the #5 recruit out of Minnesota in the 2012 class. He will learn behind seniors Marc Trasolini and Niyi Harrison this season.

Positives:

• The pieces are there.
  Marc Trasolini is back with his 1,100 career points. Kevin Foster returns from his suspension as the Broncos' leading three point shooter with 311 to Steve Nash's 263. These two helped lead the Broncos to a 24 win season and CIT championship the last time both of them played together. Last season without Trasolini the Broncos survived, when they lost both they fell apart. We've seen what this team does with and without them, for opponents it's much scarier when they are both there. Santa Clara will be a scoring machine if they stay healthy and out of trouble.
• There are other pieces that fit nicely.
  Losing one team leader in the preseason then the other just over half way thru the season opens a void. Evan Roquemore, Raymond Cowels III and Niyi Harrison filled that void as best they could. While they couldn't muster a win for the battered Broncos, they now fill out a starting five that has game leadership experience from top to bottom.
• It can't get worse.
  It's the least positive positive out there but it's true. All the Broncos need to do this year is win one WCC game to improve upon last year.

Best Case Scenario: 
Marc Trasolini and Kevin Foster gel with the rest of the Broncos after their extended absences and pick right back up on their career record book altering paces. Trasolini's presence on the boards is felt and the Broncos are no longer getting out rebounded by wide margins. The Broncos get wins against two or more of the good teams they play in the non-conference: Saint Louis, Utah State, UC Santa Barbara and Duke. They don't lose a game they should win. If those things happen the Broncos will enter WCC play with a record superior to last year's 8-5 mark and be on track for one amazing turnaround.

Negatives:

• Could the chemistry be gone?
  This group was together two years ago for a magical postseason championship run. Now they're back, but it's not so magical. In the Broncos exhibition game against Hawaii-Pacific they had to fight their way out of a hole to escape with a two point win. A two point win against a Division II team is no way to start a turnaround season. It's a win, sure, but every other WCC team was blowing out their exhibition opponents. I've said this in the previews for Portland and Pepperdine so I won't devote a whole bullet to it this time but, the WCC is getting better and this unit's growth was severely stunted. An extremely promising group on paper that needs a while to regain chemistry may just stumble out of the gate for too long to make any serious climb in the standings.
• Unfortunate scheduling to open WCC play.
  Once broken it's hard to fix the mentality of a team. I wasn't in the locker room so I can't speak with authority, but that's my guess as to what happened once the Broncos ran up a losing streak of games and star players. This season their first five games in WCC play are against four of the five teams that won at least 20 games last season. Immediately before that they play Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Once again the Broncos could do alright in their non-conference but fall flat in the beginning of league play. Last season they didn't have to face such a daunting string of games though.
• Can they defend?
  Last season the Broncos ranked ninth in the WCC during conference play in opponent field goal percentage (50.4%) and opponent 2pt field goal percentage (54.8%) and seventh in opponent three point percentage (37.5%). They also ranked seventh in turnovers forced and opponents turnover rate. Rebounding was not a strong suit either as they ranked eighth in the WCC in rebounds per game. When they try to defend they would often foul. The Broncos led the WCC in fouls per game with 22.7 in league play. Overall only 20 teams committed more fouls per game than the Broncos last season.

Worst Case Scenario:
This team has been too fractured to be put back together and the chemistry does not return. The offense isn't a problem but the defense does not improve. The four good teams on the Broncos non-conference slate sweep them and they drop games against other teams. They enter WCC play at best sitting at .500 and lose to San Francisco, Gonzaga Loyola Marymount, BYU and San Francisco again before getting a chance for a win at Pepperdine. If those things happen the Broncos will be in a fight with Portland and Pepperdine to not finish last again. Fortunately, a winless WCC campaign seems as close to impossible as is possible.

Thoughts on 2012-13:
Kerry Keating's Broncos will be better than last season. They didn't suffer big losses like most teams do in the offseason. However, this team is a bit of an enigma. Two years ago they were 24-14 and won the CIT, and did so with pretty much this group. Despite their 24 wins only eight came in WCC play and their RPI rank was 158. Under Kerry Keating they've done no better than that.
While things are looking up in Silicon Valley, I expect they will look better on paper than on the court.
It will be fun to watch Kevin Foster and Marc Trasolini score. It will also be frustrating to watch how many attempts Kevin Foster takes to score as much as he does. With the scoring ability and defensive struggles of Santa Clara they should be part of many high powered offensive shoot outs. It will be fun to watch how this team regroups and gels, but it is already frustrating seeing how much work needs to be done for that to happen after one horrible exhibition game.
For the sake of the WCC I hope the Broncos are able to improve as dramatically as some think they will (they are sixth in the coaches poll). This team has a lot of talent, which is why they will improve, but a lot of question marks, which is why I have them in seventh.