Preseason Predictions: Fourth Place

#4 Loyola Marymount Lions

2011-12 Record: 21-13 (11-5) 4th WCC, RPI: 117

Postseason: CIT Second Round

2011-12 Recap:

The Lions were coming off an awful 2010-11 WCC campaign that saw only two wins. They immediately showed that 2011-12 would be different with an 11 point victory at then #20 UCLA in their season opener. While they would drop their next two games the Lions got back in the win column with three straight wins. Their third straight came against then #25 Saint Louis, it was a seven point victory over a Billikens squad that beat Memphis in the NCAA tournament before falling to 1 seed Michigan State. 

As was the case all season for the Lions they would continue to drop games they should win and grab upsets they shouldn't. They entered WCC play one game over .500 at 7-6, though two of those wins came against non-D-1 schools. Another year long trend for the Lions was being a better team on the road. Through their first eight WCC games the Lions lost three, all at home, and won their five road games. One of those road wins was season defining, an 82-68 pounding of BYU in Provo. During that stretch they lost both their first games against the Zags and Gaels, which were ranked #23 and #20 respectively. After the Saint Mary's loss the Lions went on a four game winning streak which included a season sweep of the closest team behind them, San Francisco, and saw them win three games at home (their first home win against a D-1 team since December 10th when they beat Idaho State).
The winning streak was snapped by Gonzaga. The Lions stood at 16-9 before the loss, 9-3 in WCC play which had them tied with BYU for third. They then beat #16 Saint Mary's in Moraga 75-60, picking up a season split with two of the league's top three teams. The next game, an ESPN Bracket Busters match-up against Valparaiso, saw the Lions win once again. It was a real possibility, at this point in late February, that LMU could make the big dance without costing BYU, Gonzaga or Saint Mary's an at-large bid. That thought was shortlived as the Lions dropped a home game to San Diego in their next game.

The Lions entered the WCC tournament with a bye into the quarterfinals and sitting at 19 wins, poised to become the fourth WCC team to win 20 games. They fell to a resurgent San Francisco team by seven. Their 20 win hopes remained intact though thanks to an invitation to the postseason CIT. The Lions won two games, to finish with 21 wins, in the CIT, including a victory over now NBA Rookie of the Year candidate Damian Lillard and his Weber State Wildcats. They weren't able to outplay a second Utah team though, as Utah State ended the Lions season in the CIT quarterfinal.

Key Losses:

• Drew Viney, Senior, Forward: The 6'8'' big man was second on the team in scoring and rebounding with 15.2ppg and 5.5rpg in a season where injuries sidelined him for 10 games. Viney was a versatile scorer who would have probably led the team in points and rebounding had he played in more games. He was part of the Miami Heat Summer League team and training camp this offseason but did not make the final roster.
• LaRon Armistead, Senior, Forward: Armistead had a solid senior season, playing in 32 of 34 games and averaging 8 points, 2.8 rebounds and an assist per contest.
• Jarred Dubois, Junior, Guard: Transferred to Utah. Fourth on the team in points per game with 10.1 and second in assists with 2.1.

Key Additions:

• Chase Flint, Sophomore, Guard: The 21 year old Flint comes via Eastern Utah College. He served on an LDS mission which explains his age for a sophomore. Flint will immediately replace Jarred Dubois in the backcourt.
• Nick Stover, Freshman, Forward: The 6'6'' product out of Windward HS in L.A. is the highest rated recruit for LMU, he has a grade of 90 from ESPN scouts.
• Taj Adams, Freshman, Forward: Another L.A. product, the 6'6'' Adams comes from Fairfax High School. ESPN has him as the #41 recruit out of California.

Positives:

• LMU eturns a strong core.
  Anthony Ireland is one of the most underrated point guards in the country. At 5'10'' he is undersized but makes up for it in pure skill and tenacity. He started every game last season and led the team in points with over 16 per game. He can score in every way except, obviously, by posting up. Ashley Hamilton has been plagued with injuries, 24 games missed over three seasons half of which came last year, but is back and healthy for a senior year. The 6'7'' London transplant averaged 11 points and 5.6 rebounds in the 22 game he played last year. Godwin Okonji of Lagos, Nigeria is the third returing starter. Ayodeji Egbeyemi, also from Lagos, started in 14 games due to the injuries that plagued the Lions last year.
• Defensive strength.
  The Lions had the WCC's best and nation's 17th best three point shooting defense. In field goal defense, turnovers forced and opponent turnover rate they ranked third in the conference. With some potent offenses atop the WCC and another looking to challenge LMU from behind defense will help lead the Lions to wins this season as it did last season.

Best Case Scenario:
Anthony Ireland continues to be superb. Ashley Hamilton escapes injuries and settles into a groove for his final season at LMU. The freshman forwards step in to help fill the hole on the interior left by Viney and Armistead's departures. Chase Flint is able to run the point effectively, freeing up Ireland for more shots. The Lions drop only one or two games and pick up two or more wins against their best opponents (Long Beach State, Saint Louis, Oral Roberts and possibly Belmont). They enter WCC play with only two losses and some solid wins. Their place just outside the big three is assured and they are once again legitimate challengers for the WCC's auto bid.

Negatives:

• Lack of Size, Lack of Siame.
  Drew Viney and LaRon Armistead weren't huge. Unfortunately the freshmen coming in are even smaller, and worse, untested. Patson Siame, a 6'11'' 213lbs center from Zambia committed to LMU but will not be eligible to play until at least the second semester. He is not listed on their official roster so it seems he will be a no show for this season. Unfortunate, because Siame is already getting looks from NBA scouts. He would have been an instant impact player and probably first game starter for the Lions.
• Not Really Reloaded.
  The teams sitting around the Lions both above and below have reloaded. San Diego could shred the bottom two thirds of the conference this season. LMU brings back three (basically three and a half) starters but loses two of three key starters from last season. The Lions don't add much, at least in the way of proven commodities, to replace those losses.

Worst Case Scenario:
Anthony Ireland gets no help from his supporting cast and is overwhelmed by defenses focusing on him. Ashley Hamilton once again misses significant time with injuries. An already battered LMU team (they haven't been able to practice with everybody often due to players recovering from offseason injuries) once again catches the injury bug. Flint can't keep up with D-1 ball. The Lions not only lose to all their quality opponents but drop some easy ones as well. They enter conference play hovering around .500 and look to sink in the standings. Once again a battle with San Francisco occurs late, though this time in an early game of the WCC tournament, not the quarterfinals.

Thoughts on 2012-13:
Last season the Lions looked at times primed to breakthrough the newly established big three atop the league and crash BYU's honeymoon. Other times they looked frustrating but talented. This year should be no different. I'm hoping they can once again be the darlings of the conference.
If the Lions can find a way to replace Viney, which will probably be through small additions from everyone rather someone new stepping up big, they will remain on track. If not, they will fall off.
Anthony Ireland is one of the best point guards in the nation that nobody has heard of. He frustrated his WCC opponents last season and was at his best when the lights were the brightest. With that sort of potential a breakout junior year (both compared to his stellar sophomore campaign and onto the national radar sort of breakout) is to be expected. If he does make serious strides the LMU team will be one of if not the most exciting WCC team to watch during conference play.
Last season they were the team nobody wanted to play down the stretch. If they can be that again the league profile will benefit greatly because they aren't just some surprise out of nowhere upsetting the big boys. They have that on their resume. That's why I picked them ahead of San Diego. The Lions lost more this offseason than the Toreros, but they have the know how to knock off the Goliaths, and with that will try to become one.