Preseason Predictions: Third Place

#3 Saint Mary's Gaels

2011-12 Record: 27-6 (14-2) 1st WCC, RPI: 28

NCAA Tournament Round of 64

2011-12 Recap:

In March of 2011 the Gaels were half way to their goal. They earned a share of the WCC title with Gonzaga. They didn't win it outright, but they proved they could be at least as good as the team that had run the conference for over a decade.

The Gaels opened the 2011-12 season with two straight wins. First over non-D-1 Sonoma State and then, in what would become uncharacteristic, a low scoring 57-41 win over the solid mid-major Northern Iowa. Those were followed by the first road game of the season and the first loss of the season, 70-58 at Denver. Randy Bennett's weak scheduling came into full effect and the Gaels ran off an eight game win streak. The only quality opponent in that streak was Weber State. Streaks must end, and for the Gaels the end came at the hands of then #7 Baylor in Las Vegas. The Gaels won their next game to finish the non-conference part of the season at 11-2. No bad losses but no big wins.

To open WCC play the Gaels welcomed the BYU Cougars to Moraga for their first ever WCC game. It was a rude welcome for the Cougars, who were blown out 98-82. A few games later the Gaels welcomed then #23 Gonzaga to McKeon Pavillion and blew them out 83-62. Then, a month after the first BYU match up the Gaels once again beat down BYU, this time in a gym nearly 10 times the size of McKeon Pavillion, 80-66. A twelfth win followed, this time over San Diego, pushing the Gaels to 22-2 and 11-0 in conference play. They sat at #16 in the polls at the start of February.

At this point in the season the Gaels started to stumble. First, on February 9th in Spokane, Gonzaga exacted revenge and beat the Gaels 73-59. Saint Mary's rebounded at awful Santa Clara in their next game but the rebound didn't last long. Two straight losses followed, at home by 15 to Loyola Marymount and then on the road at Murray State, then #14, in a Bracketbusters game. The Gaels offense looked hapless in the 65-51 loss.
The Gaels closed out WCC play with four straight wins, two to end the regular season and two in the WCC tournament. The championship game, which cemented total ownership of the WCC for Saint Mary's was an overtime thriller against, you guessed it, Gonzaga. In the NCAA tournament the Gaels were awarded a 7 seed and sent to Omaha to face 10 seed Purdue. Rob Jones recorded his 20th double-double of the season but it would also be his last as a Gael, as his team fell to the Boilermakers 72-69.

Key Losses:

• Rob Jones, Senior, Forward. Led the team in rebounding with 10.8rpg, second in scoring with 15ppg. He averaged a double-double and put up 20 on the year. His physical play inside will not be replaced.
• Clint Steindl, Senior, Forward. The Aussie was the Gaels sixth man and a dangerous three point shooter. He averaged 7.9ppg, good for sixth on the team.

Key Additions:

• Chris Reyes, Freshman, Forward. Out of Damien HS in La Verne, CA the 6'6'', 205lbs, forward will help make up for the loss of Rob Jones. The Gaels beat WCC foes Gonzaga and Loyola Marymount along with six other schools at the recruiting game to land Reyes.

Positives:

• Matthew Dellavedova, Student, Athlete, Olympian.
  For the second time in as many Olympics Saint Mary's has been represented by an active basketball player on the hardwood. In Beijing it was Patty Mills. That Winter Mills only scored in single digits one time. Does the future hold a similar fate for Dellavedova? I don't see why not. Dellavedova not only played against great international competition over the Summer, he played basically an NBA all-star team in Australia's quarterfinals loss to Team USA. That experience will be invaluable for a player already expected to be one of the nation's elite floor generals. Don't forget, he was good enough last year to be WCC player of the Year, he's back and better than ever before.
• Winning is built into the schedule.
  When I spoke with Randy Bennett at the WCC Tip-Off event about scheduling he seemd a bit defensive about the quality of his scheduling. His goal, along with almost every other coach in basketball is to "Position ourselves that if we do well we'll have a chance to be an at large team."  While I often say that their less than tough non-conference scheduling hurts down the stretch in tough games, I can't say it doesn't help them run up great looking win totals, neither can Coach Bennett, "...you gotta win some games." Last season the Gaels had a pretty pretty record thanks to their ability to win a lot of early games, and it translated into the Gaels coming close to breaking the top ten in the polls.
  This year is no different. The toughest teams on their schedule, Northern Iowa, Harvard and Drexel, aren't the kind of teams that will break through into the national conversation like the Gaels did last year. All three of them could make the NCAA tournament but probably won't do so as at-large teams.
  Saint Mary's is once again set up to breeze thru the non-conference and enter WCC play looking good.
• Experience.
  This is a multifaceted positive. The Gaels' roster experienced (they return four starters). The Gaels' coach is experienced, Randy Bennett has been in Moraga for over a decade now. The Gaels' had the experience of making NCAA tournaments and either winning the WCC regular season or tournament championship. Now, though, they have all three of those in one season.

Best Case Scenario:
The Gaels run thru their non-conference slate with at most one loss (ideally, if deciding a loss can be ideal, that would come at Northern Iowa). Injuries don't sideline anybody like they did last February, which caused the Gaels to struggle and drop a few games. Matthew Dellavedova is even better than before. Stephen Holt lives up to his preseason all-WCC billing (STEVE HOLT!). If those things happen the Gaels enter WCC play either undefeated or with just one loss and, despite their less than impressive assortment of vanquished opponents, both look as good as they are (very good).

Negatives:

• Finding 15 points and 10+ rebounds a game.
  It's not ever a good thing having to replace a starter. It's never good having to replace a 20 double-double beast like Rob Jones. While the Gaels have a couple options going forward in their frontcourt none of them will be as tough as Jones was. I don't see Brad Waldow running over guys for dunks or rebounds. Mitchell Young had a strong sophomore campaign but his junior year slump saw him regress to below his freshman year level. Freshman Chris Reyes has the potential to fill Jones' shoes, but not for a year or two.
• Shallow Depth.
  While the Gaels lost only one starter from last year's squad they also lost a great sixth man in Clint Steindl as well as one of their six players to play all 33 games, Kenton Walker. With the loss of Jones a reserve becomes a starter and with the loss of Walker and Steindl and no real replacements picked up this offseason, deep reserves become key reserves. An injury to a starter and somebody from deep on the bench goes from unused to in the fire. We saw last season how an injury can derail the Gaels. This year it looks to be no different as they seem to have lost more than gained in the offseason. An injury to Matthew Dellavedova in particular, the player who the Gaels' NCAA tournament hopes rest upon, would be disastrous.

Worst Case Scenario:
The Gaels can't prove they're a class above the on-the-bubble-at-best mid-majors that make up the toughest part of the Gaels' non-con schedule and lose games to at least half of them. On top of that the Gaels drop an easy one against a weak squad. Injuries, even just one, take their toll on the Gaels and the reserves are called up for duty. Matthew Dellavedova stays the same while the rest of the WCC's guards are catching up to him. Stephen Holt stays the same too, and doesn't end up all-WCC at the end of the year. If those things happen the Gaels enter WCC play with at least five losses, already on the bubble, and will probably need to win the auto-bid to go dancing.

Thoughts on 2012-13:
Well, it's a new day in the West Coast Conference. Saint Mary's enters as the reigning champions. Unfortunately for Gaels' fans it looks as if their time atop the conference will be short lived. Both Gonzaga and Brigham Young have been pegged to finish above Saint Mary's by the WCC Coaches. Last season was the end of Gonzaga's outright ownership of the conference, will this season be the end of Gonzaga owning the vast majority Saint Mary's fans ire? With both other teams atop the conference improved, games against BYU (which were pretty darn easy for the Gaels last year) will become far more important. I still expect to see the Saint Mary's/Gonzaga games being some of the best, most energetic and exciting rivalry games on the West Coast. But this year the rivalry has become a ménage à trois.
Matthew Dellavedova isn't exactly overlooked anymore. The senior point guard has had three strong to stellar seasons as a starter in Moraga. He's on the preseason Wooden All-American watch list this time around. However, he's not really in the conversation for "best point guard in the game" along with the more hyped Aaron Craft and Peyton Siva, heck even Murray State's Isaiah Caanan is drawing more praise than Dellavedova. Maybe it's just because I've seen him develop for four years, woke up early to watch him in the Olympics and emulated his play in pick-up games with my friends but I think he should be in the top five at this point. Being a starting point guard for an Australian team, which is pretty good internationally mind you (#10 in the FIBA rankings), against elite level competition for a couple months is great. Being effective in the Olympics for that team is also great. Coming back to the college game after that and playing a lot of guys who will never more than dream of playing in the Olympics, well that should be a cake walk.
As is the case with some of the lower level teams in the WCC, the competition around the Gaels is improving faster than they are. Saint Mary's hasn't slowed to the point where LMU or San Diego should have any reasonable chance of finishing ahead of them, but they've slowed enough to let BYU pass and Gonzaga long jump over them. Since they're coming off their best season yet, a third place finish in the WCC would be a let down. Even if it comes with some of the best point guard play in the nation and another gaudy record.